Virginia cold wave risk
133 counties scored 0 rated Very High
Smyth County has the highest cold wave risk in Virginia, scoring 91.2 out of 100 — rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index.
| # | County | NRI score | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Smyth County | 91.2 | Relatively High |
| 2 | Carroll County | 89.3 | Relatively High |
| 3 | Wythe County | 88.7 | Relatively Moderate |
| 4 | Fairfax County | 83 | Relatively Moderate |
| 5 | Russell County | 79.9 | Relatively Moderate |
| 6 | Grayson County | 79.5 | Relatively Moderate |
| 7 | Wise County | 75.5 | Relatively Moderate |
| 8 | Tazewell County | 75.1 | Relatively Moderate |
| 9 | Norfolk | 70.4 | Relatively Moderate |
| 10 | Buchanan County | 70.3 | Relatively Moderate |
| 11 | Montgomery County | 69.2 | Relatively Moderate |
| 12 | Newport News | 64.6 | Relatively Low |
| 13 | Bland County | 64.1 | Relatively Low |
| 14 | Lee County | 63.1 | Relatively Low |
| 15 | Galax | 61.2 | Relatively Low |
| 16 | Henry County | 60.6 | Relatively Low |
| 17 | Roanoke | 58.7 | Relatively Low |
| 18 | Hampton | 56.6 | Relatively Low |
| 19 | Accomack County | 56.2 | Relatively Low |
| 20 | Virginia Beach | 56.1 | Relatively Low |
| 21 | Alleghany County | 55.8 | Relatively Low |
| 22 | Pulaski County | 55.8 | Relatively Low |
| 23 | Richmond | 54.5 | Relatively Low |
| 24 | Washington County | 52.5 | Relatively Low |
| 25 | Portsmouth | 48.4 | Relatively Low |
| 26 | Roanoke County | 47.4 | Relatively Low |
| 27 | Chesapeake | 45.6 | Relatively Low |
| 28 | Suffolk | 43.8 | Relatively Low |
| 29 | Patrick County | 43.4 | Relatively Low |
| 30 | Rockingham County | 41.3 | Relatively Low |
| 31 | Augusta County | 40.5 | Relatively Low |
| 32 | Dickenson County | 38.4 | Relatively Low |
| 33 | James City County | 36.9 | Relatively Low |
| 34 | Pittsylvania County | 36.2 | Relatively Low |
| 35 | Giles County | 34.1 | Relatively Low |
| 36 | Floyd County | 34 | Relatively Low |
| 37 | Rockbridge County | 33.5 | Relatively Low |
| 38 | Bedford County | 33 | Relatively Low |
| 39 | Mecklenburg County | 33 | Relatively Low |
| 40 | Franklin County | 31 | Relatively Low |
| 41 | Danville | 31 | Relatively Low |
| 42 | Arlington County | 30.2 | Relatively Low |
| 43 | Botetourt County | 30.1 | Relatively Low |
| 44 | Shenandoah County | 29.3 | Relatively Low |
| 45 | Gloucester County | 29.2 | Relatively Low |
| 46 | Page County | 28.7 | Relatively Low |
| 47 | Northumberland County | 28.6 | Relatively Low |
| 48 | York County | 27.7 | Relatively Low |
| 49 | Northampton County | 27.5 | Relatively Low |
| 50 | Bristol | 27.4 | Relatively Low |
| 51 | Radford | 26.7 | Relatively Low |
| 52 | Prince Edward County | 26.4 | Relatively Low |
| 53 | Covington | 26.1 | Relatively Low |
| 54 | Scott County | 25.3 | Relatively Low |
| 55 | Alexandria | 25.1 | Relatively Low |
| 56 | Loudoun County | 24.6 | Relatively Low |
| 57 | Lancaster County | 24.5 | Relatively Low |
| 58 | Norton | 24.5 | Relatively Low |
| 59 | Isle of Wight County | 24.3 | Relatively Low |
| 60 | Highland County | 23.9 | Relatively Low |
| 61 | Bath County | 23.8 | Very Low |
| 62 | Prince William County | 23.7 | Very Low |
| 63 | Prince George County | 23.4 | Very Low |
| 64 | Martinsville | 23.4 | Very Low |
| 65 | Nottoway County | 23.3 | Very Low |
| 66 | Charlotte County | 22.6 | Very Low |
| 67 | Dinwiddie County | 22.3 | Very Low |
| 68 | Appomattox County | 21.8 | Very Low |
| 69 | Lunenburg County | 20.6 | Very Low |
| 70 | Brunswick County | 20.5 | Very Low |
| 71 | Middlesex County | 20.1 | Very Low |
| 72 | Southampton County | 19.8 | Very Low |
| 73 | Greensville County | 17.9 | Very Low |
| 74 | Salem | 17.7 | Very Low |
| 75 | Lynchburg | 17.2 | Very Low |
| 76 | Harrisonburg | 16.3 | Very Low |
| 77 | Sussex County | 15.9 | Very Low |
| 78 | Lexington | 15.6 | Very Low |
| 79 | Halifax County | 14.7 | Very Low |
| 80 | Amherst County | 14.5 | Very Low |
| 81 | Nelson County | 14.2 | Very Low |
| 82 | Mathews County | 13.8 | Very Low |
| 83 | Frederick County | 12.8 | Very Low |
| 84 | Buena Vista | 12.3 | Very Low |
| 85 | Staunton | 12.2 | Very Low |
| 86 | Stafford County | 12.1 | Very Low |
| 87 | Craig County | 12 | Very Low |
| 88 | Fauquier County | 11.9 | Very Low |
| 89 | Westmoreland County | 11.8 | Very Low |
| 90 | Franklin | 11.6 | Very Low |
| 91 | Campbell County | 11.5 | Very Low |
| 92 | Charles City County | 11.4 | Very Low |
| 93 | Albemarle County | 11.2 | Very Low |
| 94 | Waynesboro | 10.9 | Very Low |
| 95 | Williamsburg | 10.9 | Very Low |
| 96 | Winchester | 10.5 | Very Low |
| 97 | Rappahannock County | 10.3 | Very Low |
| 98 | Surry County | 10.3 | Very Low |
| 99 | Madison County | 10 | Very Low |
| 100 | Manassas | 9.8 | Very Low |
| 101 | Greene County | 9.1 | Very Low |
| 102 | King George County | 9.1 | Very Low |
| 103 | Emporia | 9.1 | Very Low |
| 104 | Manassas Park | 9 | Very Low |
| 105 | Orange County | 8.9 | Very Low |
| 106 | Warren County | 8.7 | Very Low |
| 107 | Poquoson | 8.6 | Very Low |
| 108 | Clarke County | 8.4 | Very Low |
| 109 | Charlottesville | 8.4 | Very Low |
| 110 | Henrico County | 8.1 | Very Low |
| 111 | Richmond County | 7.7 | Very Low |
| 112 | Buckingham County | 7.6 | Very Low |
| 113 | Culpeper County | 7.3 | Very Low |
| 114 | Amelia County | 7 | Very Low |
| 115 | Caroline County | 6.9 | Very Low |
| 116 | Essex County | 6.7 | Very Low |
| 117 | Spotsylvania County | 6.6 | Very Low |
| 118 | Chesterfield County | 6.1 | Very Low |
| 119 | Cumberland County | 5.9 | Very Low |
| 120 | Louisa County | 5.8 | Very Low |
| 121 | Hanover County | 5.3 | Very Low |
| 122 | Fairfax | 5.2 | Very Low |
| 123 | New Kent County | 5.1 | Very Low |
| 124 | Fredericksburg | 4.7 | Very Low |
| 125 | King and Queen County | 4.5 | Very Low |
| 126 | Falls Church | 4.5 | Very Low |
| 127 | Fluvanna County | 4.4 | Very Low |
| 128 | Goochland County | 4.4 | Very Low |
| 129 | King William County | 4.4 | Very Low |
| 130 | Powhatan County | 4.1 | Very Low |
| 131 | Petersburg | 3.8 | Very Low |
| 132 | Hopewell | 3.7 | Very Low |
| 133 | Colonial Heights | 3.4 | Very Low |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20.0, December 2025. Scores are 0–100 percentile rankings among all US counties. See the methodology page for definitions. Download the full CSV for all counties.
Cold Wave risk nationally:
Other hazard risks in Virginia:
Frequently asked questions
What is the highest cold wave risk county in Virginia?
Smyth County, VA has the highest cold wave risk in Virginia, with a FEMA National Risk Index score of 91.2 out of 100 (rated "Relatively High").
What causes cold wave risk in Virginia?
Cold wave risk captures expected losses from extended periods of extreme cold, including wind chill. The northern Plains, Great Lakes, and interior New England see the most severe and frequent cold events. Cold extremes cause significant excess mortality, especially among unhoused populations, the elderly, and those with inadequate heating or insulation. Cold and wind chill events are reported at forecast-zone level in NOAA Storm Events and are not included in county-level counts.