Stafford County, VA
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Stafford County has experienced 20 federally declared disasters since 1972, most recently Severe Winter Storm in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Stafford County's highest-rated hazards are strong wind, heat wave, and hurricane, with its top risk rated "Relatively Moderate" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have decreased 74% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is relatively low (24th percentile nationally), indicating stronger recovery capacity than most US counties.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Stafford County has been designated in 20 declarations since 1972, covering 8 disaster types including snowstorm (5), hurricane (5), severe storm (3).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm And Snowstorm |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| 2016 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm And Snowstorm |
| 2013 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Straight-Line Winds |
| 2010 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storms And Snowstorms |
| 2010 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm And Snowstorm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 20 total declarations since 1972.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 18.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Moderate | 75.5 | 65 | 0 | — |
| Coastal Flooding | Relatively Low | 47.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 70.5 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate | 78.9 | 33 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 52.2 | 1 | 0 | $250K |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | 77.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 62.7 | 22 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Moderate | 83.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Moderate | 65.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low | 41.9 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 12.1 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | 75.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 53.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 57 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Insufficient Data | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Stafford County ranks in the 24th percentile (Very low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24th | Very low |
| Socioeconomic status | 9th | Very low |
| Household characteristics | 47th | Low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 82nd | High |
| Housing type & transportation | 28th | Low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 25th | Relatively Low |
| Risk to homes | 24th | Relatively Low |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 60.5% | — |
NOAA tracked 121 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 96 in 2016–20 vs 25 in 2021–25 (-74% — frequency decreasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Stafford County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Stafford County, Virginia are strong wind, heat wave, and hurricane. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Has Stafford County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Stafford County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is snowstorm (5 declarations).
Has Stafford County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Stafford County include Severe Winter Storm (2026). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1972.
How does Stafford County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Prince William County, VA has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Moderate) and Manassas Park, VA has the lowest (Very Low). Stafford County is rated Relatively Low overall.
How is Stafford County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Stafford County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Stafford County's composite score of 65 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 65% of US counties.