Prince William County, VA
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Prince William County has experienced 20 federally declared disasters since 1972, most recently Severe Winter Storm in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Prince William County's highest-rated hazards are heat wave, lightning, and winter weather, with its top risk rated "Relatively Moderate" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have decreased 67% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Prince William County has been designated in 20 declarations since 1972, covering 8 disaster types including hurricane (6), snowstorm (5), severe storm (3).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| 2016 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm And Snowstorm |
| 2013 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| 2013 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| 2012 | Severe Storm | The Remnants Of Tropical Storm Lee |
| 2010 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storms And Snowstorms |
| 2010 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm And Snowstorm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 20 total declarations since 1972.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 18.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Moderate | 88 | 190 | 0 | $250K |
| Coastal Flooding | Relatively Low | 48.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 80.9 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate | 93.4 | 7 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 76.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Relatively Moderate | 83 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 76.6 | 17 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively High | 88.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively High | 91 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low | 56.3 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 23.7 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 91.7 | 1 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 54.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 57.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Insufficient Data | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Prince William County ranks in the 41st percentile (Low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 41st | Low |
| Socioeconomic status | 32nd | Low |
| Household characteristics | 58th | Moderate |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 92nd | High |
| Housing type & transportation | 21st | Very low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 19th | Very Low |
| Risk to homes | 19th | Very Low |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 42.3% | — |
NOAA tracked 215 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 162 in 2016–20 vs 53 in 2021–25 (-67% — frequency decreasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Prince William County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Prince William County, Virginia are heat wave, lightning, and winter weather. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Has Prince William County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Prince William County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is hurricane (6 declarations).
Has Prince William County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Prince William County include Severe Winter Storm (2026). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1972.
How does Prince William County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Fairfax County, VA has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively High) and Manassas Park, VA has the lowest (Very Low). Prince William County is rated Relatively Moderate overall.
How is Prince William County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Prince William County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Prince William County's composite score of 83 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 83% of US counties.