Fairfax, VA
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Fairfax has experienced 17 federally declared disasters since 1972, most recently Severe Winter Storm in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Fairfax's highest-rated hazards are hurricane, earthquake, and heat wave, with its top risk rated "Relatively Low" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have decreased 70% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Fairfax has been designated in 17 declarations since 1972, covering 6 disaster types including snowstorm (5), hurricane (5), severe storm (3).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| 2016 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm And Snowstorm |
| 2013 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| 2013 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Straight-Line Winds |
| 2010 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storms And Snowstorms |
| 2010 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm And Snowstorm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 17 total declarations since 1972.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Very Low | 13.5 | 3 | 0 | — |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 47.8 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 42.1 | 24 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Very Low | 20.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | 62.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Very Low | 17.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | 27.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | 27.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 13.9 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 5.2 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | 36.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | No Rating | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 2.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Fairfax ranks in the 36th percentile (Low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 36th | Low |
| Socioeconomic status | 14th | Very low |
| Household characteristics | 11th | Very low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 85th | High |
| Housing type & transportation | 81st | High |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 12th | Very Low |
| Risk to homes | 11th | Very Low |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 31.1% | — |
NOAA tracked 26 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 20 in 2016–20 vs 6 in 2021–25 (-70% — frequency decreasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Fairfax?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Fairfax, Virginia are hurricane, earthquake, and heat wave. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Has Fairfax received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Fairfax has received 17 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is snowstorm (5 declarations).
Has Fairfax had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Fairfax include Severe Winter Storm (2026). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1972.
How does Fairfax's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Fairfax County, VA has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively High) and Falls Church, VA has the lowest (Very Low). Fairfax is rated Very Low overall.
How is Fairfax's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Fairfax's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Fairfax's composite score of 5 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 5% of US counties.