Manassas, VA
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Manassas has experienced 15 federally declared disasters since 1993, most recently Severe Winter Storm in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Manassas's highest-rated hazards are hurricane, heat wave, and earthquake, with its top risk rated "Relatively Low" by FEMA's National Risk Index.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Manassas has been designated in 15 declarations since 1993, covering 5 disaster types including snowstorm (5), hurricane (5), biological (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| 2016 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm And Snowstorm |
| 2013 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| 2013 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| 2010 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storms And Snowstorms |
| 2010 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm And Snowstorm |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
Showing the 10 most recent of 15 total declarations since 1993.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Very Low | 31.7 | 4 | 0 | — |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 55.9 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 58.2 | 7 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 28.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | 65.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Very Low | 26.3 | 1 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | 47.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | 41.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 17.2 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 9.8 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | 54.5 | 1 | 0 | — |
| Drought | No Rating | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Manassas ranks in the 49th percentile (Low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 49th | Low |
| Socioeconomic status | 52nd | Moderate |
| Household characteristics | 31st | Low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 93rd | High |
| Housing type & transportation | 31st | Low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 13th | Very Low |
| Risk to homes | 13th | Very Low |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 13.1% | — |
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Manassas?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Manassas, Virginia are hurricane, heat wave, and earthquake. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Has Manassas received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Manassas has received 15 federal disaster declarations since 1993, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is snowstorm (5 declarations).
Has Manassas had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Manassas include Severe Winter Storm (2026). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1993.
How does Manassas's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Fairfax County, VA has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively High) and Falls Church, VA has the lowest (Very Low). Manassas is rated Very Low overall.
How is Manassas's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Manassas's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Manassas's composite score of 17 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 17% of US counties.