Falls Church, VA
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Falls Church has experienced 16 federally declared disasters since 1972, most recently Severe Winter Storm in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Falls Church's highest-rated hazards are hurricane, lightning, and heat wave, with its top risk rated "Very Low" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have decreased 35% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is relatively low (22nd percentile nationally), indicating stronger recovery capacity than most US counties.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Falls Church has been designated in 16 declarations since 1972, covering 6 disaster types including snowstorm (5), hurricane (5), biological (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| 2016 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm And Snowstorm |
| 2013 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| 2013 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Straight-Line Winds |
| 2010 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storms And Snowstorms |
| 2010 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm And Snowstorm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 16 total declarations since 1972.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Very Low | 5.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 16 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 30.1 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 31.4 | 25 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Very Low | 13 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 53.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Very Low | 8.4 | 2 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | 17.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 15.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 10.8 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 4.5 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | 53.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | No Rating | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Falls Church ranks in the 22nd percentile (Very low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22nd | Very low |
| Socioeconomic status | 6th | Very low |
| Household characteristics | 40th | Low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 68th | Moderate |
| Housing type & transportation | 45th | Low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 5th | Very Low |
| Risk to homes | 4th | Very Low |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 32.1% | — |
NOAA tracked 43 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 26 in 2016–20 vs 17 in 2021–25 (-35% — frequency decreasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Falls Church?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Falls Church, Virginia are hurricane, lightning, and heat wave. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Has Falls Church received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Falls Church has received 16 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is snowstorm (5 declarations).
Has Falls Church had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Falls Church include Severe Winter Storm (2026). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1972.
How does Falls Church's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, District of Columbia, DC has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively High) and Manassas Park, VA has the lowest (Very Low). Falls Church is rated Very Low overall.
How is Falls Church's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Falls Church's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Falls Church's composite score of 2 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 2% of US counties.