Arlington County, VA
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Arlington County has experienced 21 federally declared disasters since 1972, most recently Severe Winter Storm in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Arlington County's highest-rated hazards are heat wave, winter weather, and lightning, with its top risk rated "Relatively Moderate" by FEMA's National Risk Index. NOAA records 72 storm events in the county over the past decade. Community vulnerability is relatively low (16th percentile nationally), indicating stronger recovery capacity than most US counties.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Arlington County has been designated in 21 declarations since 1972, covering 9 disaster types including snowstorm (5), hurricane (5), severe storm (4).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| 2016 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm And Snowstorm |
| 2013 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| 2013 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Straight-Line Winds |
| 2010 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storms And Snowstorms |
| 2010 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm And Snowstorm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 21 total declarations since 1972.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 5.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Moderate | 73.8 | 24 | 0 | $150K |
| Coastal Flooding | Very Low | 41.6 | 16 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 73 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate | 89.9 | 25 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 44.1 | 2 | 0 | $500K |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | 80.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 64.2 | 5 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Moderate | 81.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Moderate | 84.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low | 54.8 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | 30.2 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 82.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Very Low | 18 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 20.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Arlington County ranks in the 16th percentile (Very low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16th | Very low |
| Socioeconomic status | 4th | Very low |
| Household characteristics | 1st | Very low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 79th | High |
| Housing type & transportation | 79th | High |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 9th | Very Low |
| Risk to homes | 8th | Very Low |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 15.4% | — |
NOAA tracked 72 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 37 in 2016–20 vs 35 in 2021–25 (-5% — relatively stable).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Arlington County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Arlington County, Virginia are heat wave, winter weather, and lightning. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Has Arlington County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Arlington County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is snowstorm (5 declarations).
Has Arlington County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Arlington County include Severe Winter Storm (2026). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1972.
How does Arlington County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, District of Columbia, DC has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively High) and Falls Church, VA has the lowest (Very Low). Arlington County is rated Relatively Low overall.
How is Arlington County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Arlington County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Arlington County's composite score of 67 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 67% of US counties.