Fairfax County, VA
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Fairfax County has experienced 19 federally declared disasters since 1972, most recently Severe Winter Storm in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively High — higher risk than most US counties.
Fairfax County's highest-rated hazards are winter weather, lightning, and heat wave, with its top risk rated "Very High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have decreased 40% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is relatively low (24th percentile nationally), indicating stronger recovery capacity than most US counties.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Fairfax County has been designated in 19 declarations since 1972, covering 7 disaster types including snowstorm (5), hurricane (5), severe storm (4).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| 2016 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm And Snowstorm |
| 2013 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| 2012 | Severe Storm | The Remnants Of Tropical Storm Lee |
| 2010 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storms And Snowstorms |
| 2010 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm And Snowstorm |
| 2006 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 19 total declarations since 1972.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 34 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively High | 97 | 350 | 0 | $100K |
| Coastal Flooding | Relatively Low | 52.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Moderate | 92.8 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively High | 97.1 | 24 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 54.5 | 5 | 0 | $220K |
| Hurricane | Relatively Moderate | 93 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively High | 95.1 | 39 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively High | 95.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Very High | 98.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Moderate | 81.5 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Moderate | 83 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Very High | 97.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 33.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 73 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Insufficient Data | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Fairfax County ranks in the 24th percentile (Very low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24th | Very low |
| Socioeconomic status | 11th | Very low |
| Household characteristics | 26th | Low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 88th | High |
| Housing type & transportation | 36th | Low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 16th | Very Low |
| Risk to homes | 16th | Very Low |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 44.7% | — |
NOAA tracked 417 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 261 in 2016–20 vs 156 in 2021–25 (-40% — frequency decreasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Fairfax County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Fairfax County, Virginia are winter weather, lightning, and heat wave. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively High — higher risk than most US counties.
Has Fairfax County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Fairfax County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is snowstorm (5 declarations).
Has Fairfax County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Fairfax County include Severe Winter Storm (2026). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1972.
How does Fairfax County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Alexandria, VA has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Low) and Falls Church, VA has the lowest (Very Low). Fairfax County is rated Relatively High overall.
How is Fairfax County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Fairfax County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Fairfax County's composite score of 95 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 95% of US counties.