Herndon, VA
Local storm history & FEMA National Risk Index data
Herndon is rated Relatively High for overall natural hazard risk — higher risk than most US counties — based on FEMA's National Risk Index for Fairfax County, VA. The county's highest-rated hazards are winter weather, lightning, and heat wave.
Storm events near Herndon
NOAA-recorded tornado, hail, and flood events within 25 miles of Herndon's center, 2016–2026 — the only hazards NOAA reports with exact coordinates, so these counts are specific to Herndon itself, not the whole county.
County-wide hazard risk
Every other hazard FEMA and NOAA track — including drought — is only scored at the county level. These are Fairfax County's FEMA National Risk Index scores, covering Herndon along with the rest of the county, not a Herndon-specific figure.
| Hazard | NRI score | Rating |
|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | 34 | Very Low |
| Inland Flooding | 97 | Relatively High |
| Coastal Flooding | 52.6 | Relatively Low |
| Earthquake | 92.8 | Relatively Moderate |
| Heat Wave | 97.1 | Relatively High |
| Tornado | 54.5 | Relatively Low |
| Avalanche | — | Not Applicable |
| Cold Wave | 83 | Relatively Moderate |
| Drought | 33.3 | Relatively Low |
| Hail | 95.1 | Relatively High |
| Hurricane | 93 | Relatively Moderate |
| Ice Storm | 81.5 | Relatively Moderate |
| Landslide | 73 | Relatively Low |
| Lightning | 97.9 | Very High |
| Strong Wind | 95.5 | Relatively High |
| Tsunami | — | Insufficient Data |
| Volcanic Activity | — | Not Applicable |
| Winter Weather | 98.2 | Very High |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20.0, December 2025. See the methodology page for definitions, or the full Fairfax County risk profile for disaster declarations, social vulnerability, and climate projection data.
Other cities in Fairfax County:
More on Fairfax County:
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards is Herndon, VA at risk of?
Herndon is rated Relatively High for overall natural hazard risk by FEMA's National Risk Index — higher risk than most US counties. The highest-rated hazards for Fairfax County, where Herndon is located, are winter weather, lightning, and heat wave.
What is Herndon's biggest natural hazard risk?
Winter Weather is the highest-rated hazard for Fairfax County, where Herndon is located, scoring 98.2 out of 100 on FEMA's National Risk Index (rated "Very High").
Is Herndon a high-risk area for natural disasters?
Yes — Herndon carries higher risk than most US counties for overall natural hazard risk, per FEMA's National Risk Index rating of "Relatively High" for Fairfax County.
Has Herndon had tornadoes, hail, or flooding?
NOAA has recorded 24 tornado, 198 hail, 1125 inland flooding events within 25 miles of Herndon since 2016.