Fredericksburg, VA
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Fredericksburg has experienced 19 federally declared disasters since 1972, most recently Severe Winter Storm in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Fredericksburg's highest-rated hazards are lightning, hurricane, and earthquake, with its top risk rated "Relatively Moderate" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have decreased 76% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is elevated (76th percentile nationally), suggesting residents may face greater difficulty recovering from major disasters.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Fredericksburg has been designated in 19 declarations since 1972, covering 7 disaster types including snowstorm (6), hurricane (5), severe storm (3).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm And Snowstorm |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| 2016 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm And Snowstorm |
| 2013 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Straight-Line Winds |
| 2012 | Earthquake | Earthquake |
| 2010 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storms And Snowstorms |
Showing the 10 most recent of 19 total declarations since 1972.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 1.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Very Low | 20.6 | 7 | 0 | $25K |
| Coastal Flooding | Very Low | 17 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 57.5 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 39 | 28 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Very Low | 21 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 57.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Very Low | 20.8 | 1 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | 36.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 20 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 16.2 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 4.7 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | 61.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | No Rating | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 7.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Fredericksburg ranks in the 76th percentile (High) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 76th | High |
| Socioeconomic status | 59th | Moderate |
| Household characteristics | 36th | Low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 81st | High |
| Housing type & transportation | 97th | High |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 21st | Relatively Low |
| Risk to homes | 21st | Relatively Low |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 16.4% | — |
NOAA tracked 36 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 29 in 2016–20 vs 7 in 2021–25 (-76% — frequency decreasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Fredericksburg?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Fredericksburg, Virginia are lightning, hurricane, and earthquake. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Has Fredericksburg received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Fredericksburg has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is snowstorm (6 declarations).
Has Fredericksburg had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Fredericksburg include Severe Winter Storm (2026). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1972.
How does Fredericksburg's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Prince William County, VA has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Moderate) and King George County, VA has the lowest (Very Low). Fredericksburg is rated Very Low overall.
How is Fredericksburg's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Fredericksburg's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Fredericksburg's composite score of 9 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 9% of US counties.