Caroline County, VA
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Caroline County has experienced 24 federally declared disasters since 1969, most recently Severe Winter Storm in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Caroline County's highest-rated hazards are hurricane, drought, and earthquake, with its top risk rated "Relatively Low" by FEMA's National Risk Index. NOAA records 24 storm events in the county over the past decade.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Caroline County has been designated in 24 declarations since 1969, covering 8 disaster types including hurricane (7), snowstorm (6), severe storm (5).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm And Snowstorm |
| 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| 2016 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm And Snowstorm |
| 2013 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| 2012 | Severe Storm | The Remnants Of Tropical Storm Lee |
| 2011 | Hurricane | Hurricane Irene |
Showing the 10 most recent of 24 total declarations since 1969.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 19.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Very Low | 26.8 | 15 | 0 | — |
| Coastal Flooding | Very Low | 26.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 59.9 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 39.1 | 1 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 30.2 | 2 | 0 | $250K |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | 79 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Very Low | 29 | 6 | 0 | $35K |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | 28.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | 25.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 24.9 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 6.9 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | 37.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 78.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 59 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Caroline County ranks in the 40th percentile (Low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 40th | Low |
| Socioeconomic status | 31st | Low |
| Household characteristics | 42nd | Low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 75th | High |
| Housing type & transportation | 39th | Low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 28th | Relatively Low |
| Risk to homes | 29th | Relatively Low |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 86.8% | — |
NOAA tracked 24 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 9 in 2016–20 vs 15 in 2021–25 .
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Caroline County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Caroline County, Virginia are hurricane, drought, and earthquake. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Has Caroline County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Caroline County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1969, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is hurricane (7 declarations).
Has Caroline County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Caroline County include Severe Winter Storm (2026). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1969.
How does Caroline County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Hanover County, VA has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Low) and King William County, VA has the lowest (Very Low). Caroline County is rated Very Low overall.
How is Caroline County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Caroline County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Caroline County's composite score of 21 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 21% of US counties.