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Virginia winter weather risk

133 counties scored 1 rated Very High

Fairfax County has the highest winter weather risk in Virginia, scoring 98.2 out of 100 — rated "Very High" by FEMA's National Risk Index.

# County NRI score Rating NOAA events
2016–2026
1 Fairfax County 98.2 Very High 0
2 Suffolk 91.2 Relatively High 0
3 Prince William County 91 Relatively High 0
4 Loudoun County 90.4 Relatively High 0
5 Henrico County 89 Relatively High 0
6 Chesterfield County 86.7 Relatively High 0
7 Newport News 85.5 Relatively High 0
8 Arlington County 84.3 Relatively Moderate 0
9 Alexandria 79.8 Relatively Moderate 0
10 Portsmouth 76 Relatively Moderate 0
11 Roanoke 73.4 Relatively Moderate 0
12 Augusta County 72.4 Relatively Moderate 0
13 Albemarle County 70.2 Relatively Moderate 0
14 Norfolk 69.8 Relatively Moderate 0
15 Montgomery County 69 Relatively Moderate 0
16 Pittsylvania County 68.5 Relatively Moderate 0
17 Danville 65.9 Relatively Moderate 0
18 Wise County 65.5 Relatively Moderate 0
19 Stafford County 65.1 Relatively Moderate 0
20 Halifax County 64.2 Relatively Moderate 0
21 Frederick County 64 Relatively Moderate 0
22 Roanoke County 63.2 Relatively Moderate 0
23 Lee County 62.9 Relatively Moderate 0
24 Rockingham County 62.7 Relatively Moderate 0
25 James City County 60.6 Relatively Low 0
26 Campbell County 58.9 Relatively Low 0
27 Mecklenburg County 58.6 Relatively Low 0
28 Bedford County 57.7 Relatively Low 0
29 Tazewell County 57 Relatively Low 0
30 Spotsylvania County 56.5 Relatively Low 0
31 Isle of Wight County 56.1 Relatively Low 0
32 Franklin County 55.2 Relatively Low 0
33 Henry County 53.7 Relatively Low 0
34 Richmond 53.2 Relatively Low 0
35 Shenandoah County 51.3 Relatively Low 0
36 Winchester 50 Relatively Low 0
37 Brunswick County 49.1 Relatively Low 0
38 Fauquier County 48.9 Relatively Low 0
39 Southampton County 48.8 Relatively Low 0
40 Scott County 48.7 Relatively Low 0
41 York County 48.7 Relatively Low 0
42 Lynchburg 48.3 Relatively Low 0
43 Prince George County 48.1 Relatively Low 0
44 Petersburg 48 Relatively Low 0
45 Greensville County 47.5 Relatively Low 0
46 Pulaski County 46.3 Relatively Low 0
47 Harrisonburg 44.5 Relatively Low 0
48 Carroll County 43.8 Relatively Low 0
49 Smyth County 43.5 Relatively Low 0
50 Warren County 42.9 Relatively Low 0
51 Dinwiddie County 42.8 Relatively Low 0
52 Manassas 41.5 Relatively Low 0
53 Culpeper County 40.9 Relatively Low 0
54 Franklin 40.6 Relatively Low 0
55 Hopewell 40.3 Relatively Low 0
56 Washington County 38.7 Relatively Low 0
57 Botetourt County 37.4 Relatively Low 0
58 Virginia Beach 37.3 Relatively Low 0
59 Staunton 36.7 Relatively Low 0
60 Rockbridge County 36.3 Relatively Low 0
61 Chesapeake 36.1 Relatively Low 0
62 Alleghany County 35 Relatively Low 0
63 Lunenburg County 34.8 Relatively Low 0
64 Wythe County 34.8 Relatively Low 0
65 Sussex County 34.3 Relatively Low 0
66 Prince Edward County 33.5 Relatively Low 0
67 Amherst County 33 Relatively Low 0
68 Charlottesville 32.3 Relatively Low 0
69 Page County 31.7 Relatively Low 0
70 Giles County 31.6 Relatively Low 0
71 Nottoway County 30.9 Relatively Low 0
72 Hampton 30.2 Relatively Low 0
73 Hanover County 29.4 Relatively Low 0
74 Charlotte County 28.6 Relatively Low 0
75 Orange County 27.6 Relatively Low 0
76 Buchanan County 27.4 Relatively Low 0
77 Grayson County 27.3 Relatively Low 0
78 Fairfax 27.1 Relatively Low 0
79 Westmoreland County 26.8 Relatively Low 0
80 Accomack County 26.4 Relatively Low 0
81 Salem 26.2 Relatively Low 0
82 Russell County 26 Relatively Low 0
83 Nelson County 25.6 Relatively Low 0
84 Waynesboro 25.4 Relatively Low 0
85 Caroline County 25.3 Relatively Low 0
86 King George County 23.9 Very Low 0
87 Powhatan County 23.7 Very Low 0
88 Emporia 23.6 Very Low 0
89 New Kent County 23.4 Very Low 0
90 Patrick County 23.3 Very Low 0
91 Colonial Heights 23 Very Low 0
92 Manassas Park 22.9 Very Low 0
93 Floyd County 22.4 Very Low 0
94 Radford 22.2 Very Low 0
95 Northumberland County 21.8 Very Low 0
96 Fredericksburg 20 Very Low 0
97 Martinsville 19.9 Very Low 0
98 Greene County 19.8 Very Low 0
99 Bristol 19.8 Very Low 0
100 Amelia County 18.9 Very Low 0
101 Clarke County 18.6 Very Low 0
102 Dickenson County 18.2 Very Low 0
103 Surry County 18.2 Very Low 0
104 Bath County 17 Very Low 0
105 Covington 16.9 Very Low 0
106 Williamsburg 16.9 Very Low 0
107 Craig County 16.7 Very Low 0
108 Lexington 16.7 Very Low 0
109 Norton 16.6 Very Low 0
110 Charles City County 16.4 Very Low 0
111 Falls Church 15.6 Very Low 0
112 Rappahannock County 15.4 Very Low 0
113 Richmond County 14.8 Very Low 0
114 Cumberland County 14.4 Very Low 0
115 Gloucester County 13.6 Very Low 0
116 Madison County 13.3 Very Low 0
117 Galax 13.3 Very Low 0
118 Bland County 13 Very Low 0
119 Highland County 12.5 Very Low 0
120 Fluvanna County 12.4 Very Low 0
121 Buena Vista 12.2 Very Low 0
122 Louisa County 11.8 Very Low 0
123 Buckingham County 11.5 Very Low 0
124 Middlesex County 11.1 Very Low 0
125 Lancaster County 10.9 Very Low 0
126 Essex County 10.7 Very Low 0
127 Goochland County 8.7 Very Low 0
128 Appomattox County 8.6 Very Low 0
129 King William County 8.6 Very Low 0
130 King and Queen County 7.4 Very Low 0
131 Northampton County 6.1 Very Low 0
132 Mathews County 5.3 Very Low 0
133 Poquoson 2.6 Very Low 0

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20.0, December 2025. Scores are 0–100 percentile rankings among all US counties. See the methodology page for definitions. Download the full CSV for all counties.

Winter Weather risk nationally:

Top 50 US counties

Other hazard risks in Virginia:

WildfireInland FloodingCoastal FloodingEarthquakeHeat WaveTornadoHurricaneHailStrong WindIce StormCold WaveLightningDroughtLandslideAvalancheTsunamiVolcanic Activity

Frequently asked questions

What is the highest winter weather risk county in Virginia?

Fairfax County, VA has the highest winter weather risk in Virginia, with a FEMA National Risk Index score of 98.2 out of 100 (rated "Very High").

How many counties in Virginia are rated Very High for winter weather risk?

1 of 133 scored Virginia counties are rated "Very High" for winter weather risk by FEMA's National Risk Index.

What causes winter weather risk in Virginia?

Winter weather risk captures expected losses from heavy snow, blizzards, and mixed precipitation. Highest scores appear in the Great Lakes snowbelt, northern Rockies, and interior Northeast, where lake-effect and orographic snowfall is frequent. Winter weather impacts transportation networks, utilities, agriculture, and population health.