Middlesex County, VA
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Middlesex County has experienced 24 federally declared disasters since 1972, most recently Severe Winter Storm in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Middlesex County's highest-rated hazards are hurricane, drought, and coastal flooding, with its top risk rated "Relatively Moderate" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Community vulnerability is relatively low (30th percentile nationally), indicating stronger recovery capacity than most US counties.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Middlesex County has been designated in 24 declarations since 1972, covering 9 disaster types including hurricane (11), snowstorm (3), biological (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2019 | Hurricane | Tropical Storm Michael |
| 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| 2013 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| 2013 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| 2011 | Hurricane | Hurricane Irene |
| 2011 | Hurricane | Hurricane Irene |
Showing the 10 most recent of 24 total declarations since 1972.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 31.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Very Low | 11.3 | 2 | 0 | — |
| Coastal Flooding | Relatively Low | 58 | 5 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 36.9 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 28.3 | 2 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Very Low | 23.2 | 4 | 0 | $325K |
| Hurricane | Relatively Moderate | 85.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Very Low | 15.4 | 3 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | 37.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 11.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low | 44.3 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 20.1 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Very Low | 15.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 78.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 27.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Insufficient Data | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Middlesex County ranks in the 30th percentile (Low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30th | Low |
| Socioeconomic status | 31st | Low |
| Household characteristics | 31st | Low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 56th | Moderate |
| Housing type & transportation | 30th | Low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 33rd | Relatively Low |
| Risk to homes | 32nd | Relatively Low |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 71.1% | — |
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Middlesex County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Middlesex County, Virginia are hurricane, drought, and coastal flooding. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Has Middlesex County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Middlesex County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is hurricane (11 declarations).
Has Middlesex County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Middlesex County include Severe Winter Storm (2026). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1972.
How does Middlesex County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, James City County, VA has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Low) and Mathews County, VA has the lowest (Very Low). Middlesex County is rated Very Low overall.
How is Middlesex County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Middlesex County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Middlesex County's composite score of 24 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 24% of US counties.