Lancaster County, VA
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Lancaster County has experienced 25 federally declared disasters since 1972, most recently Severe Winter Storm in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Lancaster County's highest-rated hazards are drought, hurricane, and coastal flooding, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 208% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Lancaster County has been designated in 25 declarations since 1972, covering 9 disaster types including hurricane (12), snowstorm (3), biological (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2019 | Hurricane | Tropical Storm Michael |
| 2019 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| 2013 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| 2013 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| 2011 | Hurricane | Hurricane Irene |
Showing the 10 most recent of 25 total declarations since 1972.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 18.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Very Low | 13.7 | 26 | 0 | $75K |
| Coastal Flooding | Relatively Moderate | 60.6 | 16 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 42.9 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 29.8 | 1 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Very Low | 21.4 | 5 | 0 | $3.6M |
| Hurricane | Relatively Moderate | 85.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Very Low | 10.3 | 1 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | 31.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 10.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low | 45.9 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | 24.5 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Very Low | 11.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively High | 95.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 25.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Insufficient Data | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Lancaster County ranks in the 51st percentile (Moderate) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 51st | Moderate |
| Socioeconomic status | 73rd | Moderate |
| Household characteristics | 39th | Low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 71st | Moderate |
| Housing type & transportation | 16th | Very low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 28th | Relatively Low |
| Risk to homes | 29th | Relatively Low |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 82.1% | — |
NOAA tracked 49 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 12 in 2016–20 vs 37 in 2021–25 (+208% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Lancaster County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Lancaster County, Virginia are drought, hurricane, and coastal flooding. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Has Lancaster County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Lancaster County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is hurricane (12 declarations).
Has Lancaster County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Lancaster County include Severe Winter Storm (2026). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1972.
How does Lancaster County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Northumberland County, VA has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Very Low) and Richmond County, VA has the lowest (Very Low). Lancaster County is rated Very Low overall.
How is Lancaster County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Lancaster County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Lancaster County's composite score of 32 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 32% of US counties.