Northumberland County, VA
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Northumberland County has experienced 25 federally declared disasters since 1969, most recently Severe Winter Storm in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Northumberland County's highest-rated hazards are drought, hurricane, and strong wind, with its top risk rated "Relatively Moderate" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 143% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is relatively low (19th percentile nationally), indicating stronger recovery capacity than most US counties.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Northumberland County has been designated in 25 declarations since 1969, covering 8 disaster types including hurricane (13), snowstorm (3), biological (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2019 | Hurricane | Tropical Storm Michael |
| 2019 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| 2013 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| 2013 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| 2011 | Hurricane | Hurricane Irene |
Showing the 10 most recent of 25 total declarations since 1969.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 19.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Very Low | 19.7 | 15 | 0 | $120K |
| Coastal Flooding | Relatively Moderate | 68.4 | 24 | 0 | $200K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 38.9 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 31.4 | 1 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 27.2 | 5 | 0 | $1.4M |
| Hurricane | Relatively Moderate | 86.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Very Low | 12.6 | 3 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively High | 85.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 21.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low | 43.5 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | 28.6 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Very Low | 12.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 87.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 35.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Insufficient Data | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Northumberland County ranks in the 19th percentile (Very low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19th | Very low |
| Socioeconomic status | 38th | Low |
| Household characteristics | 8th | Very low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 69th | Moderate |
| Housing type & transportation | 9th | Very low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 30th | Relatively Low |
| Risk to homes | 30th | Relatively Low |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 78.5% | — |
NOAA tracked 48 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 14 in 2016–20 vs 34 in 2021–25 (+143% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Northumberland County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Northumberland County, Virginia are drought, hurricane, and strong wind. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Has Northumberland County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Northumberland County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1969, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is hurricane (13 declarations).
Has Northumberland County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Northumberland County include Severe Winter Storm (2026). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1969.
How does Northumberland County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, St. Mary's County, MD has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Very Low) and Richmond County, VA has the lowest (Very Low). Northumberland County is rated Very Low overall.
How is Northumberland County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Northumberland County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Northumberland County's composite score of 40 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 40% of US counties.