James City County, VA
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
James City County has experienced 18 federally declared disasters since 1972, most recently Severe Winter Storm in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
James City County's highest-rated hazards are drought, hurricane, and ice storm, with its top risk rated "Relatively Moderate" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 43% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is relatively low (18th percentile nationally), indicating stronger recovery capacity than most US counties.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. James City County has been designated in 18 declarations since 1972, covering 7 disaster types including hurricane (9), biological (2), snowstorm (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2019 | Hurricane | Tropical Storm Michael |
| 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| 2013 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| 2011 | Hurricane | Hurricane Irene |
| 2011 | Hurricane | Hurricane Irene |
| 2006 | Severe Storm | Tropical Depression Ernesto, Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
Showing the 10 most recent of 18 total declarations since 1972.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 46.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Low | 60.8 | 14 | 0 | $100K |
| Coastal Flooding | Relatively Low | 53.2 | 15 | 0 | $10K |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 61.1 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 61.6 | 2 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 51.1 | 2 | 0 | $250K |
| Hurricane | Relatively Moderate | 82.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Very Low | 32.6 | 1 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | 42.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | 60.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Moderate | 67.3 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | 36.9 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | 64.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 85.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 53.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Insufficient Data | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
James City County ranks in the 18th percentile (Very low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18th | Very low |
| Socioeconomic status | 8th | Very low |
| Household characteristics | 58th | Moderate |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 62nd | Moderate |
| Housing type & transportation | 15th | Very low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 35th | Relatively Low |
| Risk to homes | 35th | Relatively Low |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 68.7% | — |
NOAA tracked 34 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 14 in 2016–20 vs 20 in 2021–25 (+43% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in James City County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in James City County, Virginia are drought, hurricane, and ice storm. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Has James City County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. James City County has received 18 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is hurricane (9 declarations).
Has James City County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for James City County include Severe Winter Storm (2026). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1972.
How does James City County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, York County, VA has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Low) and Williamsburg, VA has the lowest (Very Low). James City County is rated Relatively Low overall.
How is James City County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
James City County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. James City County's composite score of 53 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 53% of US counties.