Patrick County, VA
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Patrick County has experienced 19 federally declared disasters since 1977, most recently Severe Winter Storm in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Patrick County's highest-rated hazards are landslide, avalanche, and hurricane, with its top risk rated "Relatively Low" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have decreased 19% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is relatively low (26th percentile nationally), indicating stronger recovery capacity than most US counties.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Patrick County has been designated in 19 declarations since 1977, covering 10 disaster types including hurricane (4), snowstorm (3), severe storm (3).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2025 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Helene |
| 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2019 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| 2016 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm And Snowstorm |
| 2013 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| 2006 | Fire | Bull Mountain Fire |
Showing the 10 most recent of 19 total declarations since 1977.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 22.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Low | 42.3 | 28 | 0 | $919K |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 37.5 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 7.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Very Low | 21.3 | 1 | 0 | $205K |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | 64.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Very Low | 19.1 | 17 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | 21.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 23.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low | 44.1 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | 43.4 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Very Low | 18.3 | 1 | 0 | $2K |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 62.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 72.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Relatively Low | 69.6 | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Patrick County ranks in the 26th percentile (Low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26th | Low |
| Socioeconomic status | 28th | Low |
| Household characteristics | 36th | Low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 31st | Low |
| Housing type & transportation | 30th | Low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 40th | Relatively Moderate |
| Risk to homes | 39th | Relatively Low |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 98.3% | — |
NOAA tracked 47 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 26 in 2016–20 vs 21 in 2021–25 (-19% — frequency decreasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Patrick County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Patrick County, Virginia are landslide, avalanche, and hurricane. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Has Patrick County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Patrick County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is hurricane (4 declarations).
Has Patrick County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Patrick County include Severe Winter Storm (2026), Tropical Storm Helene (2025). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1977.
How does Patrick County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Surry County, NC has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Low) and Floyd County, VA has the lowest (Very Low). Patrick County is rated Very Low overall.
How is Patrick County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Patrick County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Patrick County's composite score of 21 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 21% of US counties.