Carroll County, VA
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Carroll County has experienced 17 federally declared disasters since 1977, most recently Severe Winter Storm in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Carroll County's highest-rated hazards are landslide, cold wave, and drought, with its top risk rated "Relatively Moderate" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 33% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is relatively low (28th percentile nationally), indicating stronger recovery capacity than most US counties.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Carroll County has been designated in 17 declarations since 1977, covering 7 disaster types including severe storm (3), hurricane (3), snowstorm (3).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2025 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Helene |
| 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms And Flooding |
| 2024 | Tropical Storm | Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| 2013 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Straight-Line Winds |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
Showing the 10 most recent of 17 total declarations since 1977.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 55.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Low | 42.7 | 20 | 0 | $362K |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 47.5 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | No Rating | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 30.4 | 1 | 0 | $400K |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | 61.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 37.4 | 19 | 0 | $1.0M |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | 34.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | 43.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low | 56.7 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively High | 89.3 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | 49.2 | 2 | 0 | $35K |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 62.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Moderate | 92.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 56.6 | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Carroll County ranks in the 28th percentile (Low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28th | Low |
| Socioeconomic status | 59th | Moderate |
| Household characteristics | 30th | Low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 12th | Very low |
| Housing type & transportation | 11th | Very low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 58th | Relatively Moderate |
| Risk to homes | 55th | Relatively Moderate |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 97.3% | — |
NOAA tracked 42 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 18 in 2016–20 vs 24 in 2021–25 (+33% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Carroll County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Carroll County, Virginia are landslide, cold wave, and drought. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Has Carroll County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Carroll County has received 17 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is severe storm (3 declarations).
Has Carroll County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Carroll County include Severe Winter Storm (2026), Tropical Storm Helene (2025), Severe Winter Storms And Flooding (2025), Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene (2024). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1977.
How does Carroll County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Surry County, NC has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Low) and Floyd County, VA has the lowest (Very Low). Carroll County is rated Relatively Low overall.
How is Carroll County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Carroll County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Carroll County's composite score of 45 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 45% of US counties.