Frederick County, VA
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Frederick County has experienced 19 federally declared disasters since 1972, most recently Severe Winter Storm in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Frederick County's highest-rated hazards are landslide, hurricane, and drought, with its top risk rated "Relatively Low" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have decreased 56% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is relatively low (25th percentile nationally), indicating stronger recovery capacity than most US counties.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Frederick County has been designated in 19 declarations since 1972, covering 7 disaster types including hurricane (6), snowstorm (4), severe storm (3).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| 2016 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm And Snowstorm |
| 2013 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| 2013 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Straight-Line Winds |
| 2010 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storms And Snowstorms |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
Showing the 10 most recent of 19 total declarations since 1972.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 57.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Low | 60 | 84 | 0 | — |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 59.7 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 64.4 | 11 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 33.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | 76.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 59.3 | 19 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Moderate | 54.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Moderate | 64 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 20.2 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 12.8 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | 47.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 73 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 79.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 22.8 | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Frederick County ranks in the 25th percentile (Low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25th | Low |
| Socioeconomic status | 22nd | Very low |
| Household characteristics | 47th | Low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 52nd | Moderate |
| Housing type & transportation | 21st | Very low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 47th | Relatively Moderate |
| Risk to homes | 48th | Relatively Moderate |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 66.9% | — |
NOAA tracked 114 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 79 in 2016–20 vs 35 in 2021–25 (-56% — frequency decreasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Frederick County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Frederick County, Virginia are landslide, hurricane, and drought. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Has Frederick County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Frederick County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is hurricane (6 declarations).
Has Frederick County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Frederick County include Severe Winter Storm (2026). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1972.
How does Frederick County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Berkeley County, WV has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Low) and Clarke County, VA has the lowest (Very Low). Frederick County is rated Relatively Low overall.
How is Frederick County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Frederick County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Frederick County's composite score of 45 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 45% of US counties.