Warren County, VA
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Warren County has experienced 23 federally declared disasters since 1972, most recently Severe Winter Storm in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Warren County's highest-rated hazards are landslide, hurricane, and drought, with its top risk rated "Relatively Low" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 16% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Warren County has been designated in 23 declarations since 1972, covering 8 disaster types including hurricane (6), snowstorm (4), severe storm (4).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| 2016 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm And Snowstorm |
| 2013 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| 2013 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Straight-Line Winds |
| 2011 | Fire | Smith Fire |
| 2010 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storms And Snowstorms |
Showing the 10 most recent of 23 total declarations since 1972.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 36.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Low | 55.7 | 52 | 0 | — |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 45.2 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 48.6 | 14 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Very Low | 24.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | 59.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 36.6 | 3 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | 44.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | 42.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 10.5 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 8.7 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | 47.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 56 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 80.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 49.6 | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Warren County ranks in the 50th percentile (Moderate) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 50th | Moderate |
| Socioeconomic status | 61st | Moderate |
| Household characteristics | 27th | Low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 47th | Low |
| Housing type & transportation | 48th | Low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 49th | Relatively Moderate |
| Risk to homes | 50th | Relatively Moderate |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 75.6% | — |
NOAA tracked 69 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 32 in 2016–20 vs 37 in 2021–25 (+16% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Warren County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Warren County, Virginia are landslide, hurricane, and drought. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Has Warren County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Warren County has received 23 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is hurricane (6 declarations).
Has Warren County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Warren County include Severe Winter Storm (2026). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1972.
How does Warren County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Shenandoah County, VA has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Low) and Clarke County, VA has the lowest (Very Low). Warren County is rated Very Low overall.
How is Warren County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Warren County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Warren County's composite score of 32 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 32% of US counties.