Page County, VA
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Page County has experienced 24 federally declared disasters since 1972, most recently Severe Winter Storm in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Page County's highest-rated hazards are hurricane, landslide, and drought, with its top risk rated "Relatively Low" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have decreased 19% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Page County has been designated in 24 declarations since 1972, covering 8 disaster types including snowstorm (5), hurricane (5), flood (5).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms And Flooding |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| 2016 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm And Snowstorm |
| 2013 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Straight-Line Winds |
| 2010 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storms And Snowstorms |
| 2010 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm And Snowstorm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 24 total declarations since 1972.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 53.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Low | 56.6 | 37 | 0 | $5K |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 43.1 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 35.3 | 13 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Very Low | 18.9 | 1 | 0 | $50K |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | 77 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 38 | 5 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Moderate | 58.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | 31.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 15.8 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | 28.7 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | 36.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 65.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 76 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 62.4 | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Page County ranks in the 36th percentile (Low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 36th | Low |
| Socioeconomic status | 66th | Moderate |
| Household characteristics | 38th | Low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 18th | Very low |
| Housing type & transportation | 14th | Very low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 61st | Relatively High |
| Risk to homes | 63rd | Relatively High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 80.2% | — |
NOAA tracked 56 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 31 in 2016–20 vs 25 in 2021–25 (-19% — frequency decreasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Page County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Page County, Virginia are hurricane, landslide, and drought. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Very Low — among the lowest-risk counties in the country.
Has Page County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Page County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is snowstorm (5 declarations).
Has Page County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Page County include Severe Winter Storm (2026), Severe Winter Storms And Flooding (2025). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1972.
How does Page County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Rockingham County, VA has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Low) and Rappahannock County, VA has the lowest (Very Low). Page County is rated Very Low overall.
How is Page County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Page County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Page County's composite score of 38 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 38% of US counties.