Smyth County, VA
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Smyth County has experienced 21 federally declared disasters since 1972, most recently Severe Winter Storm in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Smyth County's highest-rated hazards are cold wave, landslide, and inland flooding, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have decreased 41% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Smyth County has been designated in 21 declarations since 1972, covering 8 disaster types including severe storm (6), hurricane (3), snowstorm (3).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2025 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Helene |
| 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms And Flooding |
| 2024 | Tropical Storm | Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| 2013 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Straight-Line Winds |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
Showing the 10 most recent of 21 total declarations since 1972.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 31.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Low | 61.9 | 25 | 0 | $7.3M |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 61.5 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | No Rating | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Very Low | 21.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 58 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Very Low | 19.2 | 17 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | 49 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | 43.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low | 37.9 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively High | 91.2 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | 45.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 61.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 87.2 | 1 | 0 | $2K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 61.4 | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Smyth County ranks in the 68th percentile (Moderate) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 68th | Moderate |
| Socioeconomic status | 55th | Moderate |
| Household characteristics | 89th | High |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 12th | Very low |
| Housing type & transportation | 77th | High |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 66th | Relatively High |
| Risk to homes | 63rd | Relatively High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 81.3% | — |
NOAA tracked 43 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 27 in 2016–20 vs 16 in 2021–25 (-41% — frequency decreasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Smyth County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Smyth County, Virginia are cold wave, landslide, and inland flooding. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Has Smyth County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Smyth County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is severe storm (6 declarations).
Has Smyth County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Smyth County include Severe Winter Storm (2026), Tropical Storm Helene (2025), Severe Winter Storms And Flooding (2025), Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene (2024). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1972.
How does Smyth County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Ashe County, NC has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Low) and Bland County, VA has the lowest (Very Low). Smyth County is rated Relatively Low overall.
How is Smyth County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Smyth County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Smyth County's composite score of 58 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 58% of US counties.