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Virginia lightning risk

133 counties scored 1 rated Very High

Fairfax County has the highest lightning risk in Virginia, scoring 97.9 out of 100 — rated "Very High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded lightning events across Virginia have increased 19% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period.

# County NRI score Rating NOAA events
2016–2026
1 Fairfax County 97.9 Very High 0
2 Prince William County 91.7 Relatively High 1
3 Henrico County 89.1 Relatively High 3
4 Loudoun County 87.8 Relatively High 1
5 Norfolk 87.8 Relatively High 0
6 Virginia Beach 86.5 Relatively High 2
7 Arlington County 82.7 Relatively High 0
8 Chesterfield County 82.2 Relatively High 9
9 Alexandria 81.6 Relatively Moderate 0
10 Roanoke 81.1 Relatively Moderate 2
11 Fauquier County 78.7 Relatively Moderate 0
12 Albemarle County 77.8 Relatively Moderate 3
13 Rockingham County 77.7 Relatively Moderate 0
14 Campbell County 77.1 Relatively Moderate 10
15 Spotsylvania County 77.1 Relatively Moderate 0
16 Newport News 76.4 Relatively Moderate 1
17 Rockbridge County 76.1 Relatively Moderate 1
18 Stafford County 75.1 Relatively Moderate 0
19 Bath County 74.9 Relatively Moderate 1
20 Halifax County 74.6 Relatively Moderate 6
21 Lynchburg 74 Relatively Moderate 6
22 Louisa County 73.6 Relatively Moderate 1
23 Culpeper County 72.2 Relatively Moderate 0
24 Bedford County 71.4 Relatively Moderate 17
25 Augusta County 71 Relatively Moderate 1
26 Roanoke County 68.8 Relatively Moderate 2
27 Portsmouth 68 Relatively Moderate 2
28 James City County 64.7 Relatively Moderate 0
29 Hampton 64.3 Relatively Moderate 0
30 Suffolk 62.9 Relatively Moderate 1
31 Alleghany County 62.8 Relatively Moderate 1
32 Fredericksburg 61.1 Relatively Moderate 0
33 Montgomery County 58.5 Relatively Moderate 2
34 Pittsylvania County 58.1 Relatively Moderate 6
35 Hanover County 58 Relatively Moderate 2
36 Harrisonburg 58 Relatively Moderate 0
37 Richmond 57.7 Relatively Moderate 1
38 Franklin County 57.6 Relatively Moderate 7
39 Washington County 57.4 Relatively Moderate 0
40 Henry County 56.6 Relatively Low 5
41 Buckingham County 56.3 Relatively Low 4
42 Grayson County 55.4 Relatively Low 0
43 Manassas 54.5 Relatively Low 1
44 Chesapeake 53.8 Relatively Low 4
45 Falls Church 53.4 Relatively Low 0
46 Amherst County 51 Relatively Low 0
47 Charlottesville 50.1 Relatively Low 0
48 Danville 49.5 Relatively Low 3
49 Carroll County 49.2 Relatively Low 2
50 Warren County 47.6 Relatively Low 0
51 Frederick County 47.2 Relatively Low 0
52 Lee County 45.6 Relatively Low 0
53 Shenandoah County 45.5 Relatively Low 0
54 Smyth County 45.5 Relatively Low 0
55 Scott County 45.4 Relatively Low 0
56 Lexington 45.4 Relatively Low 0
57 Tazewell County 44.1 Relatively Low 0
58 Russell County 41.1 Relatively Low 0
59 Mecklenburg County 40.9 Relatively Low 1
60 Botetourt County 40.8 Relatively Low 4
61 York County 40.4 Relatively Low 0
62 Orange County 40 Relatively Low 1
63 Nottoway County 38.9 Relatively Low 1
64 Prince Edward County 38.4 Relatively Low 1
65 Covington 37.6 Relatively Low 1
66 Staunton 37.6 Relatively Low 0
67 Caroline County 37.4 Relatively Low 0
68 Wythe County 37.2 Relatively Low 1
69 Page County 36.4 Relatively Low 0
70 Fairfax 36.2 Relatively Low 0
71 Pulaski County 36.1 Relatively Low 0
72 Bristol 36 Relatively Low 0
73 Nelson County 35.7 Relatively Low 0
74 Petersburg 35.1 Relatively Low 0
75 Greene County 33.6 Relatively Low 0
76 Isle of Wight County 33.1 Relatively Low 2
77 Manassas Park 32.8 Relatively Low 0
78 Buena Vista 32.7 Relatively Low 0
79 Fluvanna County 32.4 Relatively Low 0
80 Salem 32.3 Relatively Low 0
81 Giles County 30.7 Relatively Low 1
82 Hopewell 30.6 Relatively Low 0
83 Charlotte County 29.8 Relatively Low 2
84 Waynesboro 29.5 Relatively Low 0
85 Winchester 29.4 Relatively Low 0
86 Powhatan County 28.6 Relatively Low 0
87 Westmoreland County 28 Relatively Low 0
88 Prince George County 27.3 Relatively Low 1
89 King George County 25.9 Relatively Low 0
90 Goochland County 25.6 Relatively Low 0
91 Gloucester County 25.4 Relatively Low 0
92 Dinwiddie County 24.8 Relatively Low 1
93 Buchanan County 24.5 Relatively Low 0
94 Lunenburg County 23.1 Very Low 0
95 Appomattox County 22.5 Very Low 2
96 Accomack County 21.7 Very Low 0
97 Madison County 20.9 Very Low 0
98 Southampton County 20.7 Very Low 1
99 Cumberland County 20.5 Very Low 0
100 Brunswick County 20.2 Very Low 0
101 Wise County 19.6 Very Low 0
102 New Kent County 18.4 Very Low 0
103 Patrick County 18.3 Very Low 1
104 Greensville County 18.1 Very Low 0
105 Martinsville 17.7 Very Low 2
106 Rappahannock County 17.3 Very Low 0
107 Amelia County 16.7 Very Low 1
108 Essex County 15.7 Very Low 0
109 Highland County 15.6 Very Low 0
110 Middlesex County 15.3 Very Low 0
111 Clarke County 14.4 Very Low 1
112 King William County 13.5 Very Low 1
113 Northampton County 13.5 Very Low 0
114 Colonial Heights 13.5 Very Low 0
115 Franklin 13.4 Very Low 0
116 Dickenson County 13 Very Low 0
117 Sussex County 13 Very Low 0
118 Radford 12.9 Very Low 0
119 Northumberland County 12.5 Very Low 0
120 Williamsburg 12.1 Very Low 1
121 Richmond County 11.9 Very Low 1
122 Galax 11.8 Very Low 0
123 Lancaster County 11.7 Very Low 0
124 King and Queen County 10.4 Very Low 0
125 Charles City County 10 Very Low 0
126 Craig County 9.9 Very Low 0
127 Floyd County 9.9 Very Low 2
128 Poquoson 9.4 Very Low 0
129 Mathews County 9.2 Very Low 0
130 Bland County 8.4 Very Low 0
131 Surry County 8.4 Very Low 0
132 Emporia 7.2 Very Low 0
133 Norton 2.7 Very Low 0

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20.0, December 2025. Scores are 0–100 percentile rankings among all US counties. See the methodology page for definitions. Download the full CSV for all counties.

Lightning risk nationally:

Top 50 US counties

Other hazard risks in Virginia:

WildfireInland FloodingCoastal FloodingEarthquakeHeat WaveTornadoHurricaneHailStrong WindWinter WeatherIce StormCold WaveDroughtLandslideAvalancheTsunamiVolcanic Activity

Frequently asked questions

What is the highest lightning risk county in Virginia?

Fairfax County, VA has the highest lightning risk in Virginia, with a FEMA National Risk Index score of 97.9 out of 100 (rated "Very High").

How many counties in Virginia are rated Very High for lightning risk?

1 of 133 scored Virginia counties are rated "Very High" for lightning risk by FEMA's National Risk Index.

What causes lightning risk in Virginia?

Lightning risk reflects expected annual losses from cloud-to-ground strikes, which ignite building fires, damage electrical systems, and cause fatalities. Florida consistently leads the US in lightning density. High scores also appear across the Gulf Coast, Southeast, and central Plains, where afternoon convective storms are most frequent in summer months.