Virginia heat wave risk
133 counties scored 0 rated Very High
Fairfax County has the highest heat wave risk in Virginia, scoring 97.1 out of 100 — rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded heat wave events across Virginia have decreased 49% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period.
| # | County | NRI score | Rating |
NOAA events 2016–2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fairfax County | 97.1 | Relatively High | 24 |
| 2 | Prince William County | 93.4 | Relatively Moderate | 7 |
| 3 | Virginia Beach | 91.7 | Relatively Moderate | 1 |
| 4 | Loudoun County | 91.1 | Relatively Moderate | 12 |
| 5 | Arlington County | 89.9 | Relatively Moderate | 25 |
| 6 | Alexandria | 88.4 | Relatively Moderate | 25 |
| 7 | Richmond | 88.3 | Relatively Moderate | 1 |
| 8 | Norfolk | 88.2 | Relatively Moderate | 0 |
| 9 | Chesapeake | 88.1 | Relatively Moderate | 2 |
| 10 | Henrico County | 87.9 | Relatively Moderate | 1 |
| 11 | Chesterfield County | 86.5 | Relatively Moderate | 1 |
| 12 | Newport News | 83.7 | Relatively Moderate | 2 |
| 13 | Stafford County | 78.9 | Relatively Moderate | 33 |
| 14 | Hampton | 78.8 | Relatively Low | 2 |
| 15 | Spotsylvania County | 74.4 | Relatively Low | 28 |
| 16 | Portsmouth | 74.3 | Relatively Low | 0 |
| 17 | Rockingham County | 72.3 | Relatively Low | 6 |
| 18 | Suffolk | 71.9 | Relatively Low | 0 |
| 19 | Albemarle County | 69.2 | Relatively Low | 8 |
| 20 | Frederick County | 64.4 | Relatively Low | 11 |
| 21 | Charlottesville | 63.9 | Relatively Low | 8 |
| 22 | Fauquier County | 62.6 | Relatively Low | 14 |
| 23 | James City County | 61.6 | Relatively Low | 2 |
| 24 | Culpeper County | 60.3 | Relatively Low | 16 |
| 25 | Hanover County | 58.2 | Relatively Low | 1 |
| 26 | Manassas | 58.2 | Relatively Low | 7 |
| 27 | Clarke County | 54.2 | Relatively Low | 12 |
| 28 | Augusta County | 52.8 | Relatively Low | 5 |
| 29 | Pittsylvania County | 52.5 | Relatively Low | 0 |
| 30 | Accomack County | 52.3 | Relatively Low | 1 |
| 31 | York County | 52 | Relatively Low | 2 |
| 32 | Mecklenburg County | 51.6 | Relatively Low | 1 |
| 33 | Danville | 50.9 | Relatively Low | 0 |
| 34 | Petersburg | 50.4 | Relatively Low | 2 |
| 35 | Isle of Wight County | 49.7 | Relatively Low | 0 |
| 36 | Winchester | 48.7 | Relatively Low | 11 |
| 37 | Warren County | 48.6 | Relatively Low | 14 |
| 38 | Halifax County | 48 | Relatively Low | 0 |
| 39 | Hopewell | 47.1 | Relatively Low | 2 |
| 40 | Shenandoah County | 46.4 | Relatively Low | 12 |
| 41 | Gloucester County | 45.8 | Relatively Low | 2 |
| 42 | Lynchburg | 45.2 | Relatively Low | 0 |
| 43 | Prince George County | 44.1 | Relatively Low | 2 |
| 44 | Southampton County | 44 | Relatively Low | 2 |
| 45 | Manassas Park | 43.2 | Relatively Low | 7 |
| 46 | Orange County | 42.7 | Relatively Low | 12 |
| 47 | Dinwiddie County | 42.3 | Relatively Low | 1 |
| 48 | Fairfax | 42.1 | Relatively Low | 24 |
| 49 | Louisa County | 41.6 | Relatively Low | 1 |
| 50 | Harrisonburg | 41.2 | Relatively Low | 6 |
| 51 | Campbell County | 40.7 | Relatively Low | 0 |
| 52 | Greensville County | 39.7 | Relatively Low | 2 |
| 53 | Caroline County | 39.1 | Relatively Low | 1 |
| 54 | Fredericksburg | 39 | Relatively Low | 28 |
| 55 | Brunswick County | 38.6 | Very Low | 2 |
| 56 | Westmoreland County | 38.2 | Very Low | 1 |
| 57 | Henry County | 37.3 | Very Low | 0 |
| 58 | King George County | 37 | Very Low | 32 |
| 59 | Prince Edward County | 36 | Very Low | 1 |
| 60 | Nottoway County | 35.5 | Very Low | 1 |
| 61 | Page County | 35.3 | Very Low | 13 |
| 62 | Franklin | 34.5 | Very Low | 2 |
| 63 | Lunenburg County | 34.4 | Very Low | 1 |
| 64 | Fluvanna County | 33.9 | Very Low | 1 |
| 65 | Powhatan County | 33.2 | Very Low | 1 |
| 66 | New Kent County | 32.9 | Very Low | 2 |
| 67 | Sussex County | 32.9 | Very Low | 2 |
| 68 | Northampton County | 32.4 | Very Low | 1 |
| 69 | Northumberland County | 31.4 | Very Low | 1 |
| 70 | Falls Church | 31.4 | Very Low | 25 |
| 71 | Greene County | 31.3 | Very Low | 8 |
| 72 | Bedford County | 31.2 | Very Low | 0 |
| 73 | Roanoke | 30.1 | Very Low | 0 |
| 74 | Lancaster County | 29.8 | Very Low | 1 |
| 75 | Colonial Heights | 29.3 | Very Low | 3 |
| 76 | Goochland County | 28.7 | Very Low | 1 |
| 77 | Middlesex County | 28.3 | Very Low | 2 |
| 78 | Buckingham County | 28 | Very Low | 0 |
| 79 | Essex County | 27.7 | Very Low | 1 |
| 80 | Nelson County | 27.4 | Very Low | 7 |
| 81 | Madison County | 27.3 | Very Low | 7 |
| 82 | King William County | 26.4 | Very Low | 1 |
| 83 | Richmond County | 26 | Very Low | 1 |
| 84 | Rappahannock County | 25.9 | Very Low | 11 |
| 85 | Amelia County | 25.5 | Very Low | 1 |
| 86 | Franklin County | 25.4 | Very Low | 0 |
| 87 | Mathews County | 25.1 | Very Low | 1 |
| 88 | Williamsburg | 24.9 | Very Low | 2 |
| 89 | Charlotte County | 24.5 | Very Low | 0 |
| 90 | Roanoke County | 24 | Very Low | 0 |
| 91 | Charles City County | 23.8 | Very Low | 2 |
| 92 | Staunton | 23.8 | Very Low | 5 |
| 93 | Emporia | 23.3 | Very Low | 2 |
| 94 | King and Queen County | 22.5 | Very Low | 1 |
| 95 | Waynesboro | 22.4 | Very Low | 5 |
| 96 | Cumberland County | 22.3 | Very Low | 1 |
| 97 | Poquoson | 21.6 | Very Low | 2 |
| 98 | Amherst County | 21.5 | Very Low | 1 |
| 99 | Surry County | 21.3 | Very Low | 3 |
| 100 | Appomattox County | 20.1 | Very Low | 0 |
| 101 | Martinsville | 17.8 | Very Low | 0 |
| 102 | Buchanan County | 11.2 | Very Low | 0 |
| 103 | Salem | 11.1 | Very Low | 0 |
| 104 | Botetourt County | 10.2 | Very Low | 0 |
| 105 | Rockbridge County | 9.9 | Very Low | 0 |
| 106 | Patrick County | 7.4 | Very Low | 0 |
| 107 | Dickenson County | 6.8 | Very Low | 0 |
| 108 | Lexington | 5.2 | Very Low | 0 |
| 109 | Buena Vista | 4.5 | Very Low | 0 |
| 110 | Lee County | 4.3 | Very Low | 0 |
| 111 | Scott County | 4.2 | Very Low | 0 |
| 112 | Alleghany County | 3.7 | Very Low | 0 |
| 113 | Covington | 3 | Very Low | 0 |
| 114 | Highland County | 2.6 | Very Low | 0 |
| 115 | Floyd County | 2.4 | Very Low | 0 |
| 116 | Montgomery County | 2.4 | Very Low | 0 |
| 117 | Bath County | 2.3 | Very Low | 0 |
| 118 | Craig County | 2 | Very Low | 0 |
| 119 | Bland County | 0 | No Rating | 0 |
| 120 | Carroll County | 0 | No Rating | 0 |
| 121 | Giles County | 0 | No Rating | 0 |
| 122 | Grayson County | 0 | No Rating | 0 |
| 123 | Pulaski County | 0 | No Rating | 0 |
| 124 | Russell County | 0 | No Rating | 0 |
| 125 | Smyth County | 0 | No Rating | 0 |
| 126 | Tazewell County | 0 | No Rating | 0 |
| 127 | Washington County | 0 | No Rating | 0 |
| 128 | Wise County | 0 | No Rating | 0 |
| 129 | Wythe County | 0 | No Rating | 0 |
| 130 | Bristol | 0 | No Rating | 0 |
| 131 | Galax | 0 | No Rating | 0 |
| 132 | Norton | 0 | No Rating | 0 |
| 133 | Radford | 0 | No Rating | 0 |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20.0, December 2025. Scores are 0–100 percentile rankings among all US counties. See the methodology page for definitions. Download the full CSV for all counties.
Heat Wave risk nationally:
Other hazard risks in Virginia:
Frequently asked questions
What is the highest heat wave risk county in Virginia?
Fairfax County, VA has the highest heat wave risk in Virginia, with a FEMA National Risk Index score of 97.1 out of 100 (rated "Relatively High").
What causes heat wave risk in Virginia?
Heat is consistently the leading cause of weather-related mortality in the US, yet it remains underrepresented in federal disaster declarations relative to its actual impact. High scores reflect a combination of extreme temperature exposure, population vulnerability (elderly, outdoor workers), and limited access to cooling infrastructure.