Norfolk, VA
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Norfolk has experienced 18 federally declared disasters since 1972, most recently Severe Winter Storm in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Norfolk's highest-rated hazards are hurricane, heat wave, and lightning, with its top risk rated "Relatively Moderate" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 140% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is elevated (86th percentile nationally), suggesting residents may face greater difficulty recovering from major disasters.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Norfolk has been designated in 18 declarations since 1972, covering 7 disaster types including hurricane (10), biological (2), snowstorm (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| 2017 | Hurricane | Hurricane Matthew |
| 2013 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| 2011 | Hurricane | Hurricane Irene |
| 2011 | Hurricane | Hurricane Irene |
| 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding Associated With Tropical Depression Ida And A Nor'East |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
Showing the 10 most recent of 18 total declarations since 1972.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 32.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Moderate | 75.3 | 59 | 0 | $19.0M |
| Coastal Flooding | Relatively High | 82.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 78.1 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate | 88.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 74.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Relatively Moderate | 92.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 68.8 | 10 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Moderate | 71.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Moderate | 69.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Moderate | 69.6 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Moderate | 70.4 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 87.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | No Rating | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 12 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Insufficient Data | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Norfolk ranks in the 86th percentile (High) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 86th | High |
| Socioeconomic status | 85th | High |
| Household characteristics | 42nd | Low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 91st | High |
| Housing type & transportation | 92nd | High |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 24th | Relatively Low |
| Risk to homes | 23rd | Relatively Low |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 12.1% | — |
NOAA tracked 68 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 20 in 2016–20 vs 48 in 2021–25 (+140% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Sea level & coastal flooding
Measured at the Sewells Point NOAA tide gauge, the nearest long-term station to Norfolk — not modeled, directly measured water levels.
Projected days per year of high-tide flooding, by NOAA's severity tiers based on how far water rises above the normal high tide: minor (road closures, stormwater backup — disruptive, not damaging), moderate (can damage homes and businesses), and major (threat to life and property, often requires evacuation).
| Decade | Minor | Moderate | Major |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2030 | 30 | 3 | 0 |
| 2050 | 125 | 15 | 1 |
| 2070 | 300 | 95 | 6 |
| 2100 | 365 | 360 | 215 |
Projected flood days per year under NOAA's intermediate emissions scenario — the 2022 interagency Sea Level Rise Technical Report, the same federal dataset commercial climate-risk products are built on. Low/high scenario range and monthly detail: NOAA Tides & Currents.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Norfolk?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Norfolk, Virginia are hurricane, heat wave, and lightning. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Has Norfolk received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Norfolk has received 18 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is hurricane (10 declarations).
Has Norfolk had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Norfolk include Severe Winter Storm (2026). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1972.
How does Norfolk's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Chesapeake, VA has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Low) and Poquoson, VA has the lowest (Very Low). Norfolk is rated Relatively Moderate overall.
How is Norfolk's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Norfolk's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Norfolk's composite score of 81 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 81% of US counties.