Chesterfield County, VA
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Chesterfield County has experienced 25 federally declared disasters since 1969, most recently Severe Winter Storm in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Chesterfield County's highest-rated hazards are earthquake, inland flooding, and winter weather, with its top risk rated "Relatively Low" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 70% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is relatively low (29th percentile nationally), indicating stronger recovery capacity than most US counties.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Chesterfield County has been designated in 25 declarations since 1969, covering 9 disaster types including hurricane (10), snowstorm (3), flood (3).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2019 | Hurricane | Tropical Storm Michael |
| 2019 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| 2013 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| 2011 | Hurricane | Hurricane Irene |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
Showing the 10 most recent of 25 total declarations since 1969.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 44 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Moderate | 89.5 | 87 | 0 | $115K |
| Coastal Flooding | Relatively Low | 44.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 89.6 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate | 86.5 | 1 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 76.8 | 2 | 1 | $1.0M |
| Hurricane | Relatively Moderate | 85.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 44.4 | 44 | 0 | $4K |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Moderate | 68.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively High | 86.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively High | 83.4 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 6.1 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 82.2 | 9 | 0 | $135K |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 59.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 46.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Chesterfield County ranks in the 29th percentile (Low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29th | Low |
| Socioeconomic status | 24th | Very low |
| Household characteristics | 65th | Moderate |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 79th | High |
| Housing type & transportation | 11th | Very low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 24th | Relatively Low |
| Risk to homes | 24th | Relatively Low |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 64.3% | — |
NOAA tracked 143 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 53 in 2016–20 vs 90 in 2021–25 (+70% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Chesterfield County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Chesterfield County, Virginia are earthquake, inland flooding, and winter weather. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Has Chesterfield County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Chesterfield County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1969, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is hurricane (10 declarations).
Has Chesterfield County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Chesterfield County include Severe Winter Storm (2026). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1969.
How does Chesterfield County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Henrico County, VA has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Moderate) and Colonial Heights, VA has the lowest (Very Low). Chesterfield County is rated Relatively Moderate overall.
How is Chesterfield County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Chesterfield County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Chesterfield County's composite score of 85 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 85% of US counties.