Lynchburg, VA
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Lynchburg has experienced 17 federally declared disasters since 1972, most recently Severe Winter Storm in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Lynchburg's highest-rated hazards are strong wind, hurricane, and lightning, with its top risk rated "Relatively Moderate" by FEMA's National Risk Index. NOAA records 33 storm events in the county over the past decade. Community vulnerability is elevated (71st percentile nationally), suggesting residents may face greater difficulty recovering from major disasters.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Lynchburg has been designated in 17 declarations since 1972, covering 6 disaster types including hurricane (5), severe storm (3), snowstorm (3).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| 2013 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Straight-Line Winds |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| 2003 | Hurricane | Hurricane Isabel |
| 2000 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| 1996 | Hurricane | Hurricane Fran And Associated Severe Storm Cond |
Showing the 10 most recent of 17 total declarations since 1972.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 8.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Low | 65.3 | 17 | 0 | $18.2M |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 73 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 45.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 31.8 | 1 | 0 | $9.6M |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | 74.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Very Low | 28.3 | 8 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Moderate | 78.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | 48.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low | 47.3 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 17.2 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | 74 | 6 | 0 | $31K |
| Drought | No Rating | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 66.1 | 1 | 0 | $100K |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Lynchburg ranks in the 71st percentile (Moderate) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 71st | Moderate |
| Socioeconomic status | 69th | Moderate |
| Household characteristics | 14th | Very low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 77th | High |
| Housing type & transportation | 91st | High |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 32nd | Relatively Low |
| Risk to homes | 30th | Relatively Low |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 30.3% | — |
NOAA tracked 33 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 16 in 2016–20 vs 17 in 2021–25 (+6% — relatively stable).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Lynchburg?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Lynchburg, Virginia are strong wind, hurricane, and lightning. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Has Lynchburg received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Lynchburg has received 17 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is hurricane (5 declarations).
Has Lynchburg had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Lynchburg include Severe Winter Storm (2026). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1972.
How does Lynchburg's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Bedford County, VA has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Low) and Buena Vista, VA has the lowest (Very Low). Lynchburg is rated Relatively Low overall.
How is Lynchburg's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Lynchburg's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Lynchburg's composite score of 49 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 49% of US counties.