Top counties by cold wave risk
Cold wave risk captures expected losses from extended periods of extreme cold, including wind chill. The northern Plains, Great Lakes, and interior New England see the most severe and frequent cold events. Cold extremes cause significant excess mortality, especially among unhoused populations, the elderly, and those with inadequate heating or insulation. Cold and wind chill events are reported at forecast-zone level in NOAA Storm Events and are not included in county-level counts.
| # | County | State | NRI score | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook County | IL | 100 | Very High |
| 2 | Milwaukee County | WI | 100 | Very High |
| 3 | Dallas County | TX | 99.9 | Very High |
| 4 | Harris County | TX | 99.9 | Very High |
| 5 | Hidalgo County | TX | 99.9 | Very High |
| 6 | Hennepin County | MN | 99.8 | Very High |
| 7 | Philadelphia County | PA | 99.8 | Very High |
| 8 | Shelby County | TN | 99.8 | Very High |
| 9 | DuPage County | IL | 99.7 | Very High |
| 10 | Wayne County | MI | 99.7 | Very High |
| 11 | Queens County | NY | 99.7 | Very High |
| 12 | Cuyahoga County | OH | 99.7 | Very High |
| 13 | Will County | IL | 99.6 | Very High |
| 14 | Bronx County | NY | 99.6 | Very High |
| 15 | Erie County | NY | 99.6 | Very High |
| 16 | Hillsborough County | FL | 99.5 | Very High |
| 17 | Miami-Dade County | FL | 99.5 | Very High |
| 18 | Cameron County | TX | 99.5 | Very High |
| 19 | Lake County | IN | 99.4 | Very High |
| 20 | St. Louis County | MN | 99.4 | Very High |
| 21 | Galveston County | TX | 99.4 | Very High |
| 22 | Orange County | FL | 99.3 | Very High |
| 23 | Sedgwick County | KS | 99.3 | Very High |
| 24 | Oakland County | MI | 99.3 | Very High |
| 25 | Collier County | FL | 99.2 | Very High |
| 26 | Kane County | IL | 99.2 | Very High |
| 27 | Franklin County | OH | 99.2 | Very High |
| 28 | Ramsey County | MN | 99.1 | Very High |
| 29 | St. Louis County | MO | 99.1 | Very High |
| 30 | Kings County | NY | 99.1 | Very High |
| 31 | Macomb County | MI | 99 | Very High |
| 32 | Dewey County | SD | 99 | Very High |
| 33 | Starr County | TX | 99 | Very High |
| 34 | Dane County | WI | 99 | Very High |
| 35 | Lake County | IL | 98.9 | Very High |
| 36 | Lehigh County | PA | 98.9 | Very High |
| 37 | Nueces County | TX | 98.9 | Very High |
| 38 | Pinellas County | FL | 98.8 | Very High |
| 39 | Allegheny County | PA | 98.8 | Very High |
| 40 | Tarrant County | TX | 98.8 | Relatively High |
| 41 | Marion County | IN | 98.7 | Relatively High |
| 42 | East Baton Rouge Parish | LA | 98.7 | Relatively High |
| 43 | New York County | NY | 98.7 | Relatively High |
| 44 | Peoria County | IL | 98.6 | Relatively High |
| 45 | Henry County | TN | 98.6 | Relatively High |
| 46 | Jim Wells County | TX | 98.6 | Relatively High |
| 47 | Jefferson County | AL | 98.5 | Relatively High |
| 48 | Duval County | FL | 98.5 | Relatively High |
| 49 | Oconee County | SC | 98.5 | Relatively High |
| 50 | Montgomery County | PA | 98.4 | Relatively High |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20.0, December 2025. Scores are 0–100 percentile rankings among all US counties — a score of 95 means this county's expected annual loss from cold wave exceeds 95% of all other counties. See the methodology page for definitions. Download the full CSV for all 3,144 scored counties.
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