St. Louis County, MN
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
St. Louis County has experienced 17 federally declared disasters since 1970, most recently Munger Shaw Fire in 2025. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
St. Louis County's highest-rated hazards are cold wave, winter weather, and lightning, with its top risk rated "Very High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 76% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. St. Louis County has been designated in 17 declarations since 1970, covering 6 disaster types including flood (9), severe storm (3), biological (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Fire | Munger Shaw Fire |
| 2024 | Flood | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2023 | Flood | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2022 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2018 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding |
| 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
Showing the 10 most recent of 17 total declarations since 1970.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 81.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Moderate | 91.8 | 70 | 0 | $3.2M |
| Coastal Flooding | Very Low | 35 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 3.2 | 100 | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate | 86.5 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 64.7 | 7 | 0 | $100K |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 84 | 207 | 0 | $10K |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Moderate | 71.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Very High | 98 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Moderate | 63.6 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Very High | 99.4 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Very High | 97.6 | 8 | 0 | $379K |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 42.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 57.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Insufficient Data | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
St. Louis County ranks in the 31st percentile (Low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31st | Low |
| Socioeconomic status | 25th | Low |
| Household characteristics | 10th | Very low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 28th | Low |
| Housing type & transportation | 77th | High |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 55th | Relatively Moderate |
| Risk to homes | 62nd | Relatively High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 56.6% | — |
NOAA tracked 293 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 106 in 2016–20 vs 187 in 2021–25 (+76% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in St. Louis County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in St. Louis County, Minnesota are cold wave, winter weather, and lightning. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Has St. Louis County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. St. Louis County has received 17 federal disaster declarations since 1970, including declarations in 2025. The most common disaster type on record is flood (9 declarations).
Has St. Louis County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for St. Louis County include Munger Shaw Fire (2025), Severe Storms And Flooding (2024). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1970.
How does St. Louis County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Itasca County, MN has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Low) and Koochiching County, MN has the lowest (Very Low). St. Louis County is rated Relatively Moderate overall.
How is St. Louis County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
St. Louis County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. St. Louis County's composite score of 92 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 92% of US counties.