Carlton County, MN
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Carlton County has experienced 10 federally declared disasters since 1972, most recently Severe Storms And Flooding in 2023. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Carlton County's highest-rated hazards are cold wave, lightning, and inland flooding, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. NOAA records 73 storm events in the county over the past decade.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Carlton County has been designated in 10 declarations since 1972, covering 5 disaster types including flood (5), biological (2), severe storm (1).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Flood | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2018 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding |
| 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| 2001 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, And Tornadoes |
| 1976 | Drought | Drought |
| 1972 | Flood | Severe Storms & Flooding |
| 1972 | Flood | Severe Storms & Flooding |
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 41 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Low | 64 | 11 | 0 | $20K |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 5 | 0 | $22.2M |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 1.5 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 61.3 | 1 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 33.5 | 3 | 0 | $50K |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 46.6 | 51 | 0 | $30K |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | 24 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | 47.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low | 52.5 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively High | 97 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | 65.9 | 2 | 0 | $95K |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 33.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 14.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Carlton County ranks in the 37th percentile (Low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 37th | Low |
| Socioeconomic status | 21st | Very low |
| Household characteristics | 48th | Low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 36th | Low |
| Housing type & transportation | 64th | Moderate |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 29th | Relatively Low |
| Risk to homes | 28th | Relatively Low |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 76.2% | — |
NOAA tracked 73 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 35 in 2016–20 vs 38 in 2021–25 (+9% — relatively stable).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Carlton County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Carlton County, Minnesota are cold wave, lightning, and inland flooding. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Has Carlton County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Carlton County has received 10 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including declarations in 2023. The most common disaster type on record is flood (5 declarations).
Has Carlton County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
No federal disaster declarations have been recorded for Carlton County since the start of 2024. Its most recent declaration on record is Severe Storms And Flooding in 2023.
How does Carlton County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Douglas County, WI has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Low) and Kanabec County, MN has the lowest (Very Low). Carlton County is rated Relatively Low overall.
How is Carlton County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Carlton County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Carlton County's composite score of 70 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 70% of US counties.