Aitkin County, MN
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Aitkin County has experienced 21 federally declared disasters since 1965, most recently Severe Storms And Flooding in 2023. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Aitkin County's highest-rated hazards are cold wave, inland flooding, and landslide, with its top risk rated "Relatively Moderate" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have decreased 21% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is relatively low (28th percentile nationally), indicating stronger recovery capacity than most US counties.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Aitkin County has been designated in 21 declarations since 1965, covering 5 disaster types including flood (11), severe storm (6), biological (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Flood | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2018 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding |
| 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| 2001 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, And Tornadoes |
| 1999 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Winds, And Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 21 total declarations since 1965.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 57.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Low | 69.4 | 14 | 0 | — |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 2.2 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 43.3 | 1 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Very Low | 23.9 | 6 | 0 | $550K |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 45 | 71 | 0 | $8K |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | 34.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 21.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low | 33.7 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Moderate | 83.7 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | 50.6 | 1 | 0 | $10K |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 43.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 69.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Aitkin County ranks in the 28th percentile (Low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28th | Low |
| Socioeconomic status | 45th | Low |
| Household characteristics | 27th | Low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 15th | Very low |
| Housing type & transportation | 28th | Low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 37th | Relatively Low |
| Risk to homes | 37th | Relatively Low |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 89.6% | — |
NOAA tracked 93 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 52 in 2016–20 vs 41 in 2021–25 (-21% — frequency decreasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Aitkin County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Aitkin County, Minnesota are cold wave, inland flooding, and landslide. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Has Aitkin County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Aitkin County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including declarations in 2023. The most common disaster type on record is flood (11 declarations).
Has Aitkin County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
No federal disaster declarations have been recorded for Aitkin County since the start of 2024. Its most recent declaration on record is Severe Storms And Flooding in 2023.
How does Aitkin County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Crow Wing County, MN has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Low) and Kanabec County, MN has the lowest (Very Low). Aitkin County is rated Relatively Low overall.
How is Aitkin County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Aitkin County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Aitkin County's composite score of 57 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 57% of US counties.