Itasca County, MN
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Itasca County has experienced 15 federally declared disasters since 1966, most recently Severe Storms And Flooding in 2024. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Itasca County's highest-rated hazards are cold wave, strong wind, and landslide, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 149% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Itasca County has been designated in 15 declarations since 1966, covering 5 disaster types including severe storm (6), flood (5), biological (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Flood | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2018 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding |
| 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| 2002 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding And Tornadoes |
| 1999 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Winds, And Flooding |
| 1995 | Severe Storm | Severe Thunderstorms, Winds, Flooding, Tornadoes, And Heat |
Showing the 10 most recent of 15 total declarations since 1966.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 44.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Moderate | 75.4 | 16 | 0 | $10K |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 3 | 8 | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate | 79.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 28.1 | 3 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 53.8 | 117 | 0 | $5K |
| Strong Wind | Relatively High | 88 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | 60.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 19.6 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively High | 96.7 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | 77.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 39.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 80.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Itasca County ranks in the 40th percentile (Low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 40th | Low |
| Socioeconomic status | 35th | Low |
| Household characteristics | 31st | Low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 31st | Low |
| Housing type & transportation | 64th | Moderate |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 23rd | Relatively Low |
| Risk to homes | 25th | Relatively Low |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 78.8% | — |
NOAA tracked 136 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 39 in 2016–20 vs 97 in 2021–25 (+149% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Itasca County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Itasca County, Minnesota are cold wave, strong wind, and landslide. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Has Itasca County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Itasca County has received 15 federal disaster declarations since 1966, including declarations in 2024. The most common disaster type on record is severe storm (6 declarations).
Has Itasca County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Itasca County include Severe Storms And Flooding (2024). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1966.
How does Itasca County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, St. Louis County, MN has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Moderate) and Koochiching County, MN has the lowest (Very Low). Itasca County is rated Relatively Low overall.
How is Itasca County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Itasca County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Itasca County's composite score of 77 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 77% of US counties.