North Carolina cold wave risk
Buncombe County has the highest cold wave risk in North Carolina, scoring 97.2 out of 100 — rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index.
| # | County | NRI score | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buncombe County | 97.2 | Relatively High |
| 2 | Jackson County | 96.1 | Relatively High |
| 3 | Henderson County | 95.5 | Relatively High |
| 4 | Rowan County | 94.6 | Relatively High |
| 5 | Macon County | 93.4 | Relatively High |
| 6 | Haywood County | 92 | Relatively High |
| 7 | Surry County | 92 | Relatively High |
| 8 | Transylvania County | 91.2 | Relatively High |
| 9 | Forsyth County | 90.3 | Relatively High |
| 10 | Guilford County | 88.5 | Relatively Moderate |
| 11 | Davidson County | 84.9 | Relatively Moderate |
| 12 | Ashe County | 82.7 | Relatively Moderate |
| 13 | Wake County | 82.3 | Relatively Moderate |
| 14 | Mecklenburg County | 82.2 | Relatively Moderate |
| 15 | Watauga County | 81.9 | Relatively Moderate |
| 16 | Alleghany County | 77.7 | Relatively Moderate |
| 17 | Cumberland County | 77.3 | Relatively Moderate |
| 18 | Swain County | 76.1 | Relatively Moderate |
| 19 | Iredell County | 75.8 | Relatively Moderate |
| 20 | Randolph County | 75.1 | Relatively Moderate |
| 21 | Union County | 75 | Relatively Moderate |
| 22 | Robeson County | 73.6 | Relatively Moderate |
| 23 | Wilkes County | 73.4 | Relatively Moderate |
| 24 | Johnston County | 72.5 | Relatively Moderate |
| 25 | Yancey County | 71.6 | Relatively Moderate |
| 26 | Sampson County | 69.1 | Relatively Moderate |
| 27 | Brunswick County | 67.6 | Relatively Moderate |
| 28 | New Hanover County | 67.2 | Relatively Moderate |
| 29 | Wayne County | 66.5 | Relatively Moderate |
| 30 | Cabarrus County | 66.2 | Relatively Moderate |
| 31 | Catawba County | 65.1 | Relatively Low |
| 32 | Columbus County | 63.9 | Relatively Low |
| 33 | Avery County | 62.2 | Relatively Low |
| 34 | Pitt County | 62.2 | Relatively Low |
| 35 | Duplin County | 61.7 | Relatively Low |
| 36 | Nash County | 60.8 | Relatively Low |
| 37 | Gaston County | 60.7 | Relatively Low |
| 38 | Graham County | 60.5 | Relatively Low |
| 39 | Onslow County | 60.4 | Relatively Low |
| 40 | Cherokee County | 59.8 | Relatively Low |
| 41 | Harnett County | 59.3 | Relatively Low |
| 42 | McDowell County | 59 | Relatively Low |
| 43 | Rutherford County | 58.5 | Relatively Low |
| 44 | Franklin County | 56.3 | Relatively Low |
| 45 | Burke County | 55.9 | Relatively Low |
| 46 | Mitchell County | 55.6 | Relatively Low |
| 47 | Durham County | 55.2 | Relatively Low |
| 48 | Clay County | 55 | Relatively Low |
| 49 | Wilson County | 54.4 | Relatively Low |
| 50 | Madison County | 53.1 | Relatively Low |
| 51 | Davie County | 52.5 | Relatively Low |
| 52 | Craven County | 52.2 | Relatively Low |
| 53 | Halifax County | 52.1 | Relatively Low |
| 54 | Chatham County | 51.2 | Relatively Low |
| 55 | Cleveland County | 51 | Relatively Low |
| 56 | Caldwell County | 50.7 | Relatively Low |
| 57 | Alamance County | 50.5 | Relatively Low |
| 58 | Bladen County | 49.9 | Relatively Low |
| 59 | Moore County | 48.9 | Relatively Low |
| 60 | Edgecombe County | 48.5 | Relatively Low |
| 61 | Vance County | 48.5 | Relatively Low |
| 62 | Lenoir County | 48.4 | Relatively Low |
| 63 | Yadkin County | 48.2 | Relatively Low |
| 64 | Alexander County | 47.2 | Relatively Low |
| 65 | Stanly County | 46 | Relatively Low |
| 66 | Polk County | 45.7 | Relatively Low |
| 67 | Scotland County | 45.5 | Relatively Low |
| 68 | Anson County | 45.2 | Relatively Low |
| 69 | Hoke County | 45.1 | Relatively Low |
| 70 | Lincoln County | 44 | Relatively Low |
| 71 | Richmond County | 41.9 | Relatively Low |
| 72 | Rockingham County | 40.9 | Relatively Low |
| 73 | Pender County | 40.2 | Relatively Low |
| 74 | Lee County | 39.6 | Relatively Low |
| 75 | Carteret County | 37.1 | Relatively Low |
| 76 | Beaufort County | 36.2 | Relatively Low |
| 77 | Orange County | 36.1 | Relatively Low |
| 78 | Stokes County | 36 | Relatively Low |
| 79 | Pasquotank County | 34.3 | Relatively Low |
| 80 | Bertie County | 32.9 | Relatively Low |
| 81 | Hertford County | 32.5 | Relatively Low |
| 82 | Warren County | 32.2 | Relatively Low |
| 83 | Montgomery County | 31.2 | Relatively Low |
| 84 | Greene County | 31.1 | Relatively Low |
| 85 | Northampton County | 29.7 | Relatively Low |
| 86 | Jones County | 23.1 | Very Low |
| 87 | Martin County | 22.6 | Very Low |
| 88 | Dare County | 21.8 | Very Low |
| 89 | Granville County | 20.2 | Very Low |
| 90 | Perquimans County | 19.6 | Very Low |
| 91 | Chowan County | 18.6 | Very Low |
| 92 | Currituck County | 18 | Very Low |
| 93 | Person County | 17.7 | Very Low |
| 94 | Washington County | 16.6 | Very Low |
| 95 | Hyde County | 15.7 | Very Low |
| 96 | Gates County | 15.1 | Very Low |
| 97 | Pamlico County | 15.1 | Very Low |
| 98 | Caswell County | 15 | Very Low |
| 99 | Tyrrell County | 11.9 | Very Low |
| 100 | Camden County | 10.8 | Very Low |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20.0, December 2025. Scores are 0–100 percentile rankings among all US counties. See the methodology page for definitions. Download the full CSV for all counties.
Cold Wave risk nationally:
Other hazard risks in North Carolina:
Frequently asked questions
What is the highest cold wave risk county in North Carolina?
Buncombe County, NC has the highest cold wave risk in North Carolina, with a FEMA National Risk Index score of 97.2 out of 100 (rated "Relatively High").
What causes cold wave risk in North Carolina?
Cold wave risk captures expected losses from extended periods of extreme cold, including wind chill. The northern Plains, Great Lakes, and interior New England see the most severe and frequent cold events. Cold extremes cause significant excess mortality, especially among unhoused populations, the elderly, and those with inadequate heating or insulation. Cold and wind chill events are reported at forecast-zone level in NOAA Storm Events and are not included in county-level counts.