McDowell County, NC
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
McDowell County has experienced 21 federally declared disasters since 1973, most recently Severe Winter Storm in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
McDowell County's highest-rated hazards are landslide, ice storm, and inland flooding, with its top risk rated "Relatively Moderate" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have decreased 29% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is elevated (75th percentile nationally), suggesting residents may face greater difficulty recovering from major disasters.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. McDowell County has been designated in 21 declarations since 1973, covering 8 disaster types including hurricane (9), snowstorm (3), tropical storm (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Helene |
| 2024 | Tropical Storm | Hurricane Helene |
| 2023 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ian |
| 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Isaias |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2019 | Hurricane | Tropical Storm Michael |
| 2019 | Hurricane | Hurricane Dorian |
| 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
Showing the 10 most recent of 21 total declarations since 1973.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 59.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Low | 72.5 | 39 | 1 | $106.7M |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 61.8 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 21.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 56.1 | 2 | 0 | $6K |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | 60.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 51.8 | 35 | 0 | $250K |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Moderate | 55.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 22.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively High | 87 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | 59 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | 68.4 | 2 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 64.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Moderate | 96.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
McDowell County ranks in the 75th percentile (High) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 75th | High |
| Socioeconomic status | 64th | Moderate |
| Household characteristics | 75th | High |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 38th | Low |
| Housing type & transportation | 86th | High |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 66th | Relatively High |
| Risk to homes | 64th | Relatively High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 86.7% | — |
NOAA tracked 77 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 45 in 2016–20 vs 32 in 2021–25 (-29% — frequency decreasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in McDowell County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in McDowell County, North Carolina are landslide, ice storm, and inland flooding. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Has McDowell County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. McDowell County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is hurricane (9 declarations).
Has McDowell County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for McDowell County include Severe Winter Storm (2026), Tropical Storm Helene (2024), Hurricane Helene (2024). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1973.
How does McDowell County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Buncombe County, NC has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Moderate) and Mitchell County, NC has the lowest (Very Low). McDowell County is rated Relatively Low overall.
How is McDowell County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
McDowell County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. McDowell County's composite score of 59 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 59% of US counties.