Vance County, NC
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Vance County has experienced 23 federally declared disasters since 1977, most recently Severe Winter Storm in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Vance County's highest-rated hazards are winter weather, hurricane, and drought, with its top risk rated "Relatively Moderate" by FEMA's National Risk Index. NOAA records 20 storm events in the county over the past decade. Community vulnerability is elevated (97th percentile nationally), suggesting residents may face greater difficulty recovering from major disasters.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Vance County has been designated in 23 declarations since 1977, covering 8 disaster types including hurricane (12), snowstorm (3), biological (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Debby |
| 2024 | Tropical Storm | Hurricane Helene |
| 2023 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ian |
| 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Isaias |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2019 | Hurricane | Tropical Storm Michael |
| 2019 | Hurricane | Hurricane Dorian |
| 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
Showing the 10 most recent of 23 total declarations since 1977.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 17.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Low | 55.2 | 10 | 0 | $71K |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 56.9 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 65.9 | 2 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 63.9 | 3 | 0 | $660K |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | 79.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 57.3 | 5 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | 44.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Moderate | 82.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low | 52.4 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | 48.5 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | 54.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 70.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 24.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Vance County ranks in the 97th percentile (High) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 97th | High |
| Socioeconomic status | 95th | High |
| Household characteristics | 97th | High |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 93rd | High |
| Housing type & transportation | 73rd | Moderate |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 27th | Relatively Low |
| Risk to homes | 25th | Relatively Low |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 78.1% | — |
NOAA tracked 20 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 8 in 2016–20 vs 12 in 2021–25 .
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Vance County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Vance County, North Carolina are winter weather, hurricane, and drought. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Has Vance County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Vance County has received 23 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is hurricane (12 declarations).
Has Vance County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Vance County include Severe Winter Storm (2026), Tropical Storm Debby (2024), Hurricane Helene (2024). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1977.
How does Vance County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Durham County, NC has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Moderate) and Person County, NC has the lowest (Very Low). Vance County is rated Relatively Low overall.
How is Vance County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Vance County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Vance County's composite score of 48 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 48% of US counties.