Durham County, NC
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Durham County has experienced 25 federally declared disasters since 1977, most recently Severe Winter Storm in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Durham County's highest-rated hazards are heat wave, tornado, and inland flooding, with its top risk rated "Relatively Moderate" by FEMA's National Risk Index. NOAA records 72 storm events in the county over the past decade.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Durham County has been designated in 25 declarations since 1977, covering 10 disaster types including hurricane (11), snowstorm (3), biological (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2025 | Tropical Depression | Tropical Depression Chantal |
| 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Debby |
| 2024 | Tropical Storm | Hurricane Helene |
| 2023 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ian |
| 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Isaias |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2019 | Hurricane | Hurricane Dorian |
| 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
Showing the 10 most recent of 25 total declarations since 1977.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 34.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Moderate | 92.4 | 46 | 0 | $11.6M |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 81.9 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate | 94 | 5 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively High | 93.5 | 4 | 0 | $380K |
| Hurricane | Relatively Moderate | 89.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 89.1 | 15 | 0 | $15K |
| Strong Wind | Relatively High | 88.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Moderate | 83.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively High | 82.4 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | 55.2 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 90.4 | 2 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 42.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 45.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Durham County ranks in the 69th percentile (Moderate) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 69th | Moderate |
| Socioeconomic status | 59th | Moderate |
| Household characteristics | 24th | Very low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 91st | High |
| Housing type & transportation | 87th | High |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 22nd | Relatively Low |
| Risk to homes | 21st | Relatively Low |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 56.8% | — |
NOAA tracked 72 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 36 in 2016–20 vs 36 in 2021–25 (0% — relatively stable).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Durham County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Durham County, North Carolina are heat wave, tornado, and inland flooding. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Has Durham County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Durham County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is hurricane (11 declarations).
Has Durham County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Durham County include Severe Winter Storm (2026), Tropical Depression Chantal (2025), Tropical Storm Debby (2024), Hurricane Helene (2024). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1977.
How does Durham County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Wake County, NC has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively High) and Person County, NC has the lowest (Very Low). Durham County is rated Relatively Moderate overall.
How is Durham County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Durham County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Durham County's composite score of 90 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 90% of US counties.