Tennessee cold wave risk
Shelby County has the highest cold wave risk in Tennessee, scoring 99.8 out of 100 — rated "Very High" by FEMA's National Risk Index.
| # | County | NRI score | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shelby County | 99.8 | Very High |
| 2 | Henry County | 98.6 | Relatively High |
| 3 | Rutherford County | 97.8 | Relatively High |
| 4 | Madison County | 96.8 | Relatively High |
| 5 | Montgomery County | 94.2 | Relatively High |
| 6 | Knox County | 92.6 | Relatively High |
| 7 | Sumner County | 92.3 | Relatively High |
| 8 | Williamson County | 90.7 | Relatively High |
| 9 | Davidson County | 90.6 | Relatively High |
| 10 | Hardin County | 90.4 | Relatively High |
| 11 | Wilson County | 89.1 | Relatively Moderate |
| 12 | Carroll County | 89 | Relatively Moderate |
| 13 | Roane County | 89 | Relatively Moderate |
| 14 | Obion County | 88.7 | Relatively Moderate |
| 15 | Sequatchie County | 88.5 | Relatively Moderate |
| 16 | Maury County | 87 | Relatively Moderate |
| 17 | Bedford County | 86.8 | Relatively Moderate |
| 18 | Cumberland County | 86.7 | Relatively Moderate |
| 19 | Gibson County | 85.4 | Relatively Moderate |
| 20 | Weakley County | 84.7 | Relatively Moderate |
| 21 | Hamilton County | 84.5 | Relatively Moderate |
| 22 | Lawrence County | 84.1 | Relatively Moderate |
| 23 | Tipton County | 84 | Relatively Moderate |
| 24 | Henderson County | 83.5 | Relatively Moderate |
| 25 | Warren County | 82.2 | Relatively Moderate |
| 26 | Dyer County | 82.1 | Relatively Moderate |
| 27 | Anderson County | 80.3 | Relatively Moderate |
| 28 | Putnam County | 80.3 | Relatively Moderate |
| 29 | Franklin County | 80.2 | Relatively Moderate |
| 30 | Coffee County | 79.8 | Relatively Moderate |
| 31 | Giles County | 79.4 | Relatively Moderate |
| 32 | Marion County | 78.1 | Relatively Moderate |
| 33 | Robertson County | 78.1 | Relatively Moderate |
| 34 | McNairy County | 78 | Relatively Moderate |
| 35 | Haywood County | 76 | Relatively Moderate |
| 36 | Bradley County | 75.9 | Relatively Moderate |
| 37 | Hardeman County | 75.6 | Relatively Moderate |
| 38 | Grundy County | 75 | Relatively Moderate |
| 39 | Fayette County | 74.9 | Relatively Moderate |
| 40 | Dickson County | 73.8 | Relatively Moderate |
| 41 | Loudon County | 73.7 | Relatively Moderate |
| 42 | Benton County | 73.5 | Relatively Moderate |
| 43 | Blount County | 73.5 | Relatively Moderate |
| 44 | Campbell County | 72.1 | Relatively Moderate |
| 45 | Decatur County | 71.5 | Relatively Moderate |
| 46 | Chester County | 71.4 | Relatively Moderate |
| 47 | Claiborne County | 71.4 | Relatively Moderate |
| 48 | Lincoln County | 71 | Relatively Moderate |
| 49 | Fentress County | 70.2 | Relatively Moderate |
| 50 | Scott County | 70.2 | Relatively Moderate |
| 51 | Wayne County | 69.4 | Relatively Moderate |
| 52 | Sevier County | 68.9 | Relatively Moderate |
| 53 | Marshall County | 68.8 | Relatively Moderate |
| 54 | White County | 68.8 | Relatively Moderate |
| 55 | Lauderdale County | 68.3 | Relatively Moderate |
| 56 | Bledsoe County | 67.4 | Relatively Moderate |
| 57 | Humphreys County | 65.9 | Relatively Moderate |
| 58 | Cheatham County | 65 | Relatively Low |
| 59 | Macon County | 65 | Relatively Low |
| 60 | McMinn County | 64.7 | Relatively Low |
| 61 | Morgan County | 64.6 | Relatively Low |
| 62 | Johnson County | 63 | Relatively Low |
| 63 | Lake County | 63 | Relatively Low |
| 64 | Crockett County | 62.9 | Relatively Low |
| 65 | Greene County | 62.5 | Relatively Low |
| 66 | Monroe County | 62.4 | Relatively Low |
| 67 | Rhea County | 59.3 | Relatively Low |
| 68 | Hickman County | 57.8 | Relatively Low |
| 69 | Perry County | 57.1 | Relatively Low |
| 70 | Carter County | 54.5 | Relatively Low |
| 71 | Cocke County | 52.6 | Relatively Low |
| 72 | Overton County | 52.4 | Relatively Low |
| 73 | Washington County | 52 | Relatively Low |
| 74 | DeKalb County | 51.7 | Relatively Low |
| 75 | Sullivan County | 48.8 | Relatively Low |
| 76 | Lewis County | 47 | Relatively Low |
| 77 | Smith County | 46.2 | Relatively Low |
| 78 | Stewart County | 45.2 | Relatively Low |
| 79 | Hawkins County | 44.4 | Relatively Low |
| 80 | Houston County | 44.2 | Relatively Low |
| 81 | Unicoi County | 43.9 | Relatively Low |
| 82 | Jefferson County | 42 | Relatively Low |
| 83 | Polk County | 40.6 | Relatively Low |
| 84 | Hamblen County | 40.1 | Relatively Low |
| 85 | Jackson County | 39.8 | Relatively Low |
| 86 | Pickett County | 39.4 | Relatively Low |
| 87 | Meigs County | 36.5 | Relatively Low |
| 88 | Trousdale County | 35.4 | Relatively Low |
| 89 | Clay County | 35 | Relatively Low |
| 90 | Van Buren County | 34 | Relatively Low |
| 91 | Moore County | 33 | Relatively Low |
| 92 | Union County | 32.5 | Relatively Low |
| 93 | Hancock County | 30 | Relatively Low |
| 94 | Grainger County | 29.1 | Relatively Low |
| 95 | Cannon County | 28.4 | Relatively Low |
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20.0, December 2025. Scores are 0–100 percentile rankings among all US counties. See the methodology page for definitions. Download the full CSV for all counties.
Cold Wave risk nationally:
Other hazard risks in Tennessee:
Frequently asked questions
What is the highest cold wave risk county in Tennessee?
Shelby County, TN has the highest cold wave risk in Tennessee, with a FEMA National Risk Index score of 99.8 out of 100 (rated "Very High").
How many counties in Tennessee are rated Very High for cold wave risk?
1 of 95 scored Tennessee counties are rated "Very High" for cold wave risk by FEMA's National Risk Index.
What causes cold wave risk in Tennessee?
Cold wave risk captures expected losses from extended periods of extreme cold, including wind chill. The northern Plains, Great Lakes, and interior New England see the most severe and frequent cold events. Cold extremes cause significant excess mortality, especially among unhoused populations, the elderly, and those with inadequate heating or insulation. Cold and wind chill events are reported at forecast-zone level in NOAA Storm Events and are not included in county-level counts.