Davidson County, TN
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Davidson County has experienced 28 federally declared disasters since 1974, most recently Severe Winter Storm in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively High — higher risk than most US counties.
Davidson County's highest-rated hazards are inland flooding, earthquake, and tornado, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 22% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is elevated (72nd percentile nationally), suggesting residents may face greater difficulty recovering from major disasters.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Davidson County has been designated in 28 declarations since 1974, covering 8 disaster types including severe storm (14), tornado (5), winter storm (3).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Tornadoes |
| 2023 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, And Tornado |
| 2022 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, And Tornadoes |
| 2021 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2021 | Other | Explosion |
Showing the 10 most recent of 28 total declarations since 1974.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 57.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively High | 98.2 | 76 | 5 | $23.9M |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively High | 98.2 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate | 95.4 | 6 | 1 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively High | 97.9 | 17 | 5 | $1.1B |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 53.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Moderate | 87.8 | 69 | 0 | $52K |
| Strong Wind | Relatively High | 97.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Moderate | 82.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Moderate | 80.4 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively High | 90.6 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | 54.5 | 23 | 0 | $835K |
| Drought | Very Low | 26.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 69.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Davidson County ranks in the 72nd percentile (Moderate) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 72nd | Moderate |
| Socioeconomic status | 71st | Moderate |
| Household characteristics | 28th | Low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 83rd | High |
| Housing type & transportation | 80th | High |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 19th | Very Low |
| Risk to homes | 18th | Very Low |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 37.8% | — |
NOAA tracked 191 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 86 in 2016–20 vs 105 in 2021–25 (+22% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Davidson County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Davidson County, Tennessee are inland flooding, earthquake, and tornado. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively High — higher risk than most US counties.
Has Davidson County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Davidson County has received 28 federal disaster declarations since 1974, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is severe storm (14 declarations).
Has Davidson County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Davidson County include Severe Winter Storm (2026), Severe Winter Storm (2026), Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding (2025), Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding (2025), Severe Storms And Tornadoes (2024). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1974.
How does Davidson County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Rutherford County, TN has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Moderate) and Cheatham County, TN has the lowest (Relatively Low). Davidson County is rated Relatively High overall.
How is Davidson County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Davidson County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Davidson County's composite score of 97 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 97% of US counties.