Rutherford County, TN
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Rutherford County has experienced 17 federally declared disasters since 1973, most recently Severe Winter Storm in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Rutherford County's highest-rated hazards are cold wave, winter weather, and tornado, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 20% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Rutherford County has been designated in 17 declarations since 1973, covering 7 disaster types including severe storm (8), winter storm (2), biological (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, And Tornadoes |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, Straight-Line Winds, And Tornadoes |
| 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| 2003 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 17 total declarations since 1973.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 43.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively High | 93.4 | 31 | 1 | $35K |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Moderate | 94.8 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate | 83.6 | 5 | 1 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively High | 95 | 11 | 1 | $6.3M |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 52.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 59.4 | 36 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively High | 84.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Very High | 96.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Moderate | 75.4 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively High | 97.8 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 90.5 | 5 | 0 | $510K |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 45.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 15.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Rutherford County ranks in the 43rd percentile (Low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 43rd | Low |
| Socioeconomic status | 36th | Low |
| Household characteristics | 57th | Moderate |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 70th | Moderate |
| Housing type & transportation | 30th | Low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 19th | Very Low |
| Risk to homes | 18th | Very Low |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 44.6% | — |
NOAA tracked 88 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 40 in 2016–20 vs 48 in 2021–25 (+20% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Rutherford County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Rutherford County, Tennessee are cold wave, winter weather, and tornado. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Has Rutherford County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Rutherford County has received 17 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is severe storm (8 declarations).
Has Rutherford County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Rutherford County include Severe Winter Storm (2026), Severe Winter Storm (2026), Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding (2025). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1973.
How does Rutherford County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Davidson County, TN has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively High) and Cannon County, TN has the lowest (Very Low). Rutherford County is rated Relatively Moderate overall.
How is Rutherford County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Rutherford County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Rutherford County's composite score of 92 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 92% of US counties.