Warren County, TN
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Warren County has experienced 22 federally declared disasters since 1973, most recently Severe Winter Storm in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Warren County's highest-rated hazards are tornado, earthquake, and drought, with its top risk rated "Relatively Moderate" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Community vulnerability is elevated (78th percentile nationally), suggesting residents may face greater difficulty recovering from major disasters.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Warren County has been designated in 22 declarations since 1973, covering 8 disaster types including severe storm (10), flood (4), winter storm (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides |
| 2015 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm And Flooding |
| 2006 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Tornadoes |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
Showing the 10 most recent of 22 total declarations since 1973.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 23.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Low | 57 | 3 | 0 | $541K |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 83.1 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 20.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 85 | 3 | 0 | $65K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 53.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 56.6 | 9 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Moderate | 74.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Moderate | 80.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low | 47.7 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Moderate | 82.2 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | 61.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 83.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 28.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Warren County ranks in the 78th percentile (High) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 78th | High |
| Socioeconomic status | 71st | Moderate |
| Household characteristics | 95th | High |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 45th | Low |
| Housing type & transportation | 58th | Moderate |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 55th | Relatively Moderate |
| Risk to homes | 50th | Relatively Moderate |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 80.1% | — |
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Warren County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Warren County, Tennessee are tornado, earthquake, and drought. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Has Warren County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Warren County has received 22 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is severe storm (10 declarations).
Has Warren County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Warren County include Severe Winter Storm (2026), Severe Winter Storm (2026), Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding (2025), Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding (2024). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1973.
How does Warren County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Coffee County, TN has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Low) and Van Buren County, TN has the lowest (Very Low). Warren County is rated Relatively Low overall.
How is Warren County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Warren County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Warren County's composite score of 64 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 64% of US counties.