Sullivan County, TN
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Sullivan County has experienced 12 federally declared disasters since 1973, most recently Severe Winter Storm in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Sullivan County's highest-rated hazards are landslide, earthquake, and strong wind, with its top risk rated "Relatively Moderate" by FEMA's National Risk Index. NOAA records 32 storm events in the county over the past decade.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Sullivan County has been designated in 12 declarations since 1973, covering 8 disaster types including severe storm (3), winter storm (2), biological (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2025 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Helene |
| 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, And Associated Flooding |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| 1998 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 1993 | Snowstorm | Severe Snowfall, Winter Storm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 12 total declarations since 1973.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 36.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Moderate | 81.6 | 20 | 0 | $5K |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 87.2 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 18.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 47.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 54.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 36 | 12 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively High | 86.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | 57.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low | 27.5 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | 48.8 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 85.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Very Low | 28.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Moderate | 94.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Sullivan County ranks in the 48th percentile (Low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 48th | Low |
| Socioeconomic status | 68th | Moderate |
| Household characteristics | 43rd | Low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 19th | Very low |
| Housing type & transportation | 36th | Low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 62nd | Relatively High |
| Risk to homes | 57th | Relatively Moderate |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 63.1% | — |
NOAA tracked 32 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 9 in 2016–20 vs 23 in 2021–25 .
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Sullivan County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Sullivan County, Tennessee are landslide, earthquake, and strong wind. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Has Sullivan County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Sullivan County has received 12 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is severe storm (3 declarations).
Has Sullivan County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Sullivan County include Severe Winter Storm (2026), Severe Winter Storm (2026), Tropical Storm Helene (2025), Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding (2025). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1973.
How does Sullivan County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Carter County, TN has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Low) and Bristol, VA has the lowest (Very Low). Sullivan County is rated Relatively Low overall.
How is Sullivan County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Sullivan County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Sullivan County's composite score of 72 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 72% of US counties.