Carroll County, TN
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Carroll County has experienced 24 federally declared disasters since 1971, most recently Severe Winter Storm in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Carroll County's highest-rated hazards are earthquake, cold wave, and tornado, with its top risk rated "Relatively Moderate" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 193% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Carroll County has been designated in 24 declarations since 1971, covering 7 disaster types including severe storm (14), tornado (3), winter storm (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, And Tornado |
| 2020 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding |
| 2020 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2014 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 24 total declarations since 1971.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 20.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Very Low | 27.2 | 14 | 0 | $90K |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Moderate | 94.4 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate | 82.5 | 68 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 87.1 | 6 | 0 | $1.6M |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 52.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Very Low | 22.7 | 22 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | 49.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | 50.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Moderate | 74.2 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Moderate | 89 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | 76.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 55.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 70.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Carroll County ranks in the 55th percentile (Moderate) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 55th | Moderate |
| Socioeconomic status | 58th | Moderate |
| Household characteristics | 56th | Moderate |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 45th | Low |
| Housing type & transportation | 48th | Low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 35th | Relatively Low |
| Risk to homes | 33rd | Relatively Low |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 85.5% | — |
NOAA tracked 110 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 28 in 2016–20 vs 82 in 2021–25 (+193% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Carroll County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Carroll County, Tennessee are earthquake, cold wave, and tornado. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Has Carroll County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Carroll County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1971, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is severe storm (14 declarations).
Has Carroll County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Carroll County include Severe Winter Storm (2026), Severe Winter Storm (2026), Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding (2025), Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding (2025). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1971.
How does Carroll County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Gibson County, TN has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Moderate) and Decatur County, TN has the lowest (Very Low). Carroll County is rated Relatively Low overall.
How is Carroll County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Carroll County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Carroll County's composite score of 73 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 73% of US counties.