Lincoln County, TN
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Lincoln County has experienced 17 federally declared disasters since 1973, most recently Severe Winter Storm in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Lincoln County's highest-rated hazards are tornado, earthquake, and strong wind, with its top risk rated "Relatively Moderate" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 219% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Lincoln County has been designated in 17 declarations since 1973, covering 7 disaster types including severe storm (7), flood (3), winter storm (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, And Mudslides |
| 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, And Associated Flooding |
| 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| 2003 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 17 total declarations since 1973.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 15.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Low | 57 | 15 | 0 | $2K |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 80.4 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 50 | 31 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 85.6 | 10 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 53.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively Low | 35.3 | 11 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Moderate | 79.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | 59.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively Low | 59.8 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Moderate | 71 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | 56.4 | 2 | 0 | $110K |
| Drought | Relatively Moderate | 70.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 39.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Lincoln County ranks in the 37th percentile (Low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 37th | Low |
| Socioeconomic status | 43rd | Low |
| Household characteristics | 52nd | Moderate |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 42nd | Low |
| Housing type & transportation | 24th | Very low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 22nd | Relatively Low |
| Risk to homes | 20th | Relatively Low |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 85.2% | — |
NOAA tracked 67 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 16 in 2016–20 vs 51 in 2021–25 (+219% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Lincoln County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Lincoln County, Tennessee are tornado, earthquake, and strong wind. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Has Lincoln County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Lincoln County has received 17 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is severe storm (7 declarations).
Has Lincoln County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Lincoln County include Severe Winter Storm (2026), Severe Winter Storm (2026), Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding (2025). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1973.
How does Lincoln County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Madison County, AL has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively High) and Moore County, TN has the lowest (Very Low). Lincoln County is rated Relatively Low overall.
How is Lincoln County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Lincoln County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Lincoln County's composite score of 59 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 59% of US counties.