Madison County, TN
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Madison County has experienced 24 federally declared disasters since 1975, most recently Severe Winter Storm in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Madison County's highest-rated hazards are earthquake, tornado, and cold wave, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 80% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is elevated (90th percentile nationally), suggesting residents may face greater difficulty recovering from major disasters.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Madison County has been designated in 24 declarations since 1975, covering 7 disaster types including severe storm (15), winter storm (2), tornado (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, And Tornado |
| 2021 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2020 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, And Flooding |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2014 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 24 total declarations since 1975.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 43.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Low | 72.6 | 30 | 0 | $481K |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively High | 98.2 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate | 91.6 | 77 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively High | 97.2 | 6 | 0 | $1.5M |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | 62.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Very Low | 16.3 | 52 | 0 | $120K |
| Strong Wind | Relatively High | 88.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Relatively Low | 51.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Relatively High | 88.1 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively High | 96.8 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 90.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 55.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Relatively Low | 80.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Madison County ranks in the 90th percentile (High) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 90th | High |
| Socioeconomic status | 87th | High |
| Household characteristics | 86th | High |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 84th | High |
| Housing type & transportation | 78th | High |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 32nd | Relatively Low |
| Risk to homes | 30th | Relatively Low |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 62.3% | — |
NOAA tracked 165 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 59 in 2016–20 vs 106 in 2021–25 (+80% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Madison County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Madison County, Tennessee are earthquake, tornado, and cold wave. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Has Madison County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Madison County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1975, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is severe storm (15 declarations).
Has Madison County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Madison County include Severe Winter Storm (2026), Severe Winter Storm (2026), Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding (2025), Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding (2025). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1975.
How does Madison County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Gibson County, TN has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Moderate) and Chester County, TN has the lowest (Relatively Low). Madison County is rated Relatively Moderate overall.
How is Madison County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Madison County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Madison County's composite score of 92 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 92% of US counties.