Chester County, TN
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Chester County has experienced 16 federally declared disasters since 1975, most recently Severe Winter Storm in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Chester County's highest-rated hazards are earthquake, tornado, and cold wave, with its top risk rated "Relatively Low" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 280% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Chester County has been designated in 16 declarations since 1975, covering 6 disaster types including severe storm (9), winter storm (2), biological (2).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, And Associated Flooding |
| 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, Tornadoes, And Straight-Line Winds |
| 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, Straight-Line Winds, And Tornadoes |
| 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms And Flooding |
| 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
Showing the 10 most recent of 16 total declarations since 1975.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Very Low | 14.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Very Low | 21.8 | 4 | 0 | $80K |
| Coastal Flooding | Not Applicable | — | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 90.1 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 55.5 | 72 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 71.8 | 1 | 0 | $8K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 47.6 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Very Low | 12.8 | 18 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | 38.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 12.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 24.3 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Moderate | 71.4 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Low | 37.3 | 1 | 0 | $10K |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 38.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 62.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Chester County ranks in the 46th percentile (Low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 46th | Low |
| Socioeconomic status | 70th | Moderate |
| Household characteristics | 14th | Very low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 44th | Low |
| Housing type & transportation | 37th | Low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 42nd | Relatively Moderate |
| Risk to homes | 39th | Relatively Low |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 86.1% | — |
NOAA tracked 96 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 20 in 2016–20 vs 76 in 2021–25 (+280% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Chester County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Chester County, Tennessee are earthquake, tornado, and cold wave. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Low — lower risk than most US counties.
Has Chester County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Chester County has received 16 federal disaster declarations since 1975, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is severe storm (9 declarations).
Has Chester County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Chester County include Severe Winter Storm (2026), Severe Winter Storm (2026), Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, And Flooding (2025). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1975.
How does Chester County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Madison County, TN has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Moderate) and Decatur County, TN has the lowest (Very Low). Chester County is rated Relatively Low overall.
How is Chester County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Chester County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Chester County's composite score of 45 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 45% of US counties.