Duval County, FL
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Duval County has experienced 41 federally declared disasters since 1969, most recently Hurricane Milton in 2025. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively High — higher risk than most US counties.
Duval County's highest-rated hazards are cold wave, lightning, and hurricane, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have decreased 29% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is elevated (79th percentile nationally), suggesting residents may face greater difficulty recovering from major disasters.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Duval County has been designated in 41 declarations since 1969, covering 7 disaster types including hurricane (22), severe storm (7), tropical storm (4).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Hurricane | Hurricane Milton |
| 2025 | Hurricane | Hurricane Milton |
| 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Debby |
| 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Helene |
| 2024 | Tropical Storm | Hurricane Debby |
| 2023 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Nicole |
| 2023 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Idalia |
| 2023 | Hurricane | Hurricane Nicole |
| 2023 | Hurricane | Hurricane Idalia |
| 2022 | Hurricane | Tropical Storm Ian |
Showing the 10 most recent of 41 total declarations since 1969.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Moderate | 89.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively High | 97.6 | 90 | 0 | $520K |
| Coastal Flooding | Relatively High | 91 | 23 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Moderate | 90.2 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively High | 96.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively High | 91.5 | 11 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Relatively High | 97.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Relatively High | 96.2 | 61 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Moderate | 81.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 7.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 17 | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively High | 98.5 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Very High | 98.5 | 46 | 0 | $691K |
| Drought | Very Low | 21.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 41.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Insufficient Data | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Duval County ranks in the 79th percentile (High) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 79th | High |
| Socioeconomic status | 71st | Moderate |
| Household characteristics | 61st | Moderate |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 87th | High |
| Housing type & transportation | 81st | High |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 76th | Relatively High |
| Risk to homes | 80th | Very High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 31.8% | — |
NOAA tracked 231 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 135 in 2016–20 vs 96 in 2021–25 (-29% — frequency decreasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Sea level & coastal flooding
Measured at the Mayport NOAA tide gauge, the nearest long-term station to Duval County — not modeled, directly measured water levels.
Projected days per year of high-tide flooding, by NOAA's severity tiers based on how far water rises above the normal high tide: minor (road closures, stormwater backup — disruptive, not damaging), moderate (can damage homes and businesses), and major (threat to life and property, often requires evacuation).
| Decade | Minor | Moderate | Major |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2030 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| 2050 | 40 | 1 | 0 |
| 2070 | 155 | 20 | 0 |
| 2100 | 360 | 300 | 55 |
Projected flood days per year under NOAA's intermediate emissions scenario — the 2022 interagency Sea Level Rise Technical Report, the same federal dataset commercial climate-risk products are built on. Low/high scenario range and monthly detail: NOAA Tides & Currents.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Duval County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Duval County, Florida are cold wave, lightning, and hurricane. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively High — higher risk than most US counties.
Has Duval County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Duval County has received 41 federal disaster declarations since 1969, including declarations in 2025. The most common disaster type on record is hurricane (22 declarations).
Has Duval County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Duval County include Hurricane Milton (2025), Hurricane Milton (2025), Tropical Storm Debby (2024), Hurricane Helene (2024), Hurricane Debby (2024). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1969.
How does Duval County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, St. Johns County, FL has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively Moderate) and Baker County, FL has the lowest (Very Low). Duval County is rated Relatively High overall.
How is Duval County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Duval County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Duval County's composite score of 97 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 97% of US counties.