St. Johns County, FL
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
St. Johns County has experienced 34 federally declared disasters since 1969, most recently Hurricane Milton in 2025. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
St. Johns County's highest-rated hazards are hurricane, lightning, and wildfire, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have decreased 17% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period. Community vulnerability is relatively low (13th percentile nationally), indicating stronger recovery capacity than most US counties.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. St. Johns County has been designated in 34 declarations since 1969, covering 7 disaster types including hurricane (21), tropical storm (4), severe storm (3).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Hurricane | Hurricane Milton |
| 2025 | Hurricane | Hurricane Milton |
| 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Debby |
| 2024 | Tropical Storm | Hurricane Debby |
| 2023 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Nicole |
| 2023 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Idalia |
| 2023 | Hurricane | Hurricane Nicole |
| 2023 | Hurricane | Hurricane Idalia |
| 2022 | Hurricane | Tropical Storm Ian |
| 2022 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ian |
Showing the 10 most recent of 34 total declarations since 1969.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Moderate | 89.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Moderate | 89.4 | 29 | 0 | $20K |
| Coastal Flooding | Relatively High | 89 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 56.6 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate | 82.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 85.4 | 14 | 0 | $75K |
| Hurricane | Relatively High | 93.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Very Low | 7.5 | 35 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | 39.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | No Rating | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 18.7 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 92.2 | 19 | 0 | $356K |
| Drought | Relatively Low | 34.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 19.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Insufficient Data | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
St. Johns County ranks in the 13th percentile (Very low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13th | Very low |
| Socioeconomic status | 17th | Very low |
| Household characteristics | 19th | Very low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 53rd | Moderate |
| Housing type & transportation | 10th | Very low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 76th | Relatively High |
| Risk to homes | 77th | Relatively High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 42.1% | — |
NOAA tracked 97 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 53 in 2016–20 vs 44 in 2021–25 (-17% — frequency decreasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in St. Johns County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in St. Johns County, Florida are hurricane, lightning, and wildfire. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Has St. Johns County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. St. Johns County has received 34 federal disaster declarations since 1969, including declarations in 2025. The most common disaster type on record is hurricane (21 declarations).
Has St. Johns County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for St. Johns County include Hurricane Milton (2025), Hurricane Milton (2025), Tropical Storm Debby (2024), Hurricane Debby (2024). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1969.
How does St. Johns County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Duval County, FL has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively High) and Bradford County, FL has the lowest (Very Low). St. Johns County is rated Relatively Moderate overall.
How is St. Johns County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
St. Johns County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. St. Johns County's composite score of 88 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 88% of US counties.