Clay County, FL
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Clay County has experienced 39 federally declared disasters since 1993, most recently Railroad Complex Fire in 2026. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Clay County's highest-rated hazards are lightning, hurricane, and inland flooding, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. NOAA records 39 storm events in the county over the past decade.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Clay County has been designated in 39 declarations since 1993, covering 6 disaster types including hurricane (18), severe storm (8), fire (6).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Fire | Railroad Complex Fire |
| 2025 | Hurricane | Hurricane Milton |
| 2025 | Hurricane | Hurricane Milton |
| 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Debby |
| 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Helene |
| 2024 | Tropical Storm | Hurricane Debby |
| 2023 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Nicole |
| 2023 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Idalia |
| 2023 | Hurricane | Hurricane Nicole |
| 2023 | Hurricane | Hurricane Idalia |
Showing the 10 most recent of 39 total declarations since 1993.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 82.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Moderate | 85.9 | 16 | 0 | — |
| Coastal Flooding | Relatively Low | 57 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 64.6 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate | 82.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 83.2 | 3 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Relatively Moderate | 89.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Very Low | 5.9 | 12 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | 32.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 8.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 15.7 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 92.3 | 9 | 1 | $1.3M |
| Drought | Very Low | 17.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 27.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Insufficient Data | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Clay County ranks in the 36th percentile (Low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 36th | Low |
| Socioeconomic status | 30th | Low |
| Household characteristics | 51st | Moderate |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 66th | Moderate |
| Housing type & transportation | 29th | Low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 80th | Very High |
| Risk to homes | 80th | Very High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 51.7% | — |
NOAA tracked 39 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 9 in 2016–20 vs 30 in 2021–25 .
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Clay County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Clay County, Florida are lightning, hurricane, and inland flooding. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Has Clay County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Clay County has received 39 federal disaster declarations since 1993, including declarations in 2026. The most common disaster type on record is hurricane (18 declarations).
Has Clay County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Clay County include Railroad Complex Fire (2026), Hurricane Milton (2025), Hurricane Milton (2025), Tropical Storm Debby (2024), Hurricane Helene (2024), Hurricane Debby (2024). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1993.
How does Clay County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Duval County, FL has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively High) and Union County, FL has the lowest (Very Low). Clay County is rated Relatively Moderate overall.
How is Clay County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Clay County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Clay County's composite score of 81 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 81% of US counties.