Flagler County, FL
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Flagler County has experienced 38 federally declared disasters since 1977, most recently Hurricane Milton in 2025. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Flagler County's highest-rated hazards are hurricane, wildfire, and tornado, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. Recorded storm events have increased 37% over the past five years compared to the prior five-year period.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Flagler County has been designated in 38 declarations since 1977, covering 7 disaster types including hurricane (22), tropical storm (4), severe storm (4).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Hurricane | Hurricane Milton |
| 2025 | Hurricane | Hurricane Milton |
| 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Debby |
| 2024 | Tropical Storm | Hurricane Debby |
| 2023 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Nicole |
| 2023 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Idalia |
| 2023 | Hurricane | Hurricane Nicole |
| 2023 | Hurricane | Hurricane Idalia |
| 2022 | Hurricane | Tropical Storm Ian |
| 2022 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ian |
Showing the 10 most recent of 38 total declarations since 1977.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 88.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Moderate | 79.2 | 31 | 0 | $500 |
| Coastal Flooding | Relatively Moderate | 67.6 | 5 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 39.2 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 70.9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 80.9 | 6 | 0 | — |
| Hurricane | Relatively High | 95 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Very Low | 6.8 | 39 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively Low | 41.4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | No Rating | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 19.4 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively Moderate | 75.9 | 9 | 0 | $42K |
| Drought | Very Low | 25.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 27.2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Insufficient Data | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Flagler County ranks in the 31st percentile (Low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31st | Low |
| Socioeconomic status | 46th | Low |
| Household characteristics | 56th | Moderate |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 63rd | Moderate |
| Housing type & transportation | 6th | Very low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 89th | Very High |
| Risk to homes | 88th | Very High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 43.1% | — |
NOAA tracked 90 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 38 in 2016–20 vs 52 in 2021–25 (+37% — frequency increasing).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Flagler County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Flagler County, Florida are hurricane, wildfire, and tornado. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Has Flagler County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Flagler County has received 38 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including declarations in 2025. The most common disaster type on record is hurricane (22 declarations).
Has Flagler County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Flagler County include Hurricane Milton (2025), Hurricane Milton (2025), Tropical Storm Debby (2024), Hurricane Debby (2024). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1977.
How does Flagler County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Volusia County, FL has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively High) and Putnam County, FL has the lowest (Relatively Low). Flagler County is rated Relatively Moderate overall.
How is Flagler County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Flagler County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Flagler County's composite score of 83 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 83% of US counties.