Seminole County, FL
FEMA National Risk Index scores, disaster declarations & hazard data
Seminole County has experienced 39 federally declared disasters since 1977, most recently Hurricane Milton in 2025. Its overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Seminole County's highest-rated hazards are tornado, strong wind, and lightning, with its top risk rated "Relatively High" by FEMA's National Risk Index. NOAA records 63 storm events in the county over the past decade.
Past disasters & FEMA designations
A federal disaster declaration officially designates a county for FEMA disaster assistance. Seminole County has been designated in 39 declarations since 1977, covering 6 disaster types including hurricane (20), freezing (5), tropical storm (4).
| Year | Type | Event name |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Hurricane | Hurricane Milton |
| 2025 | Hurricane | Hurricane Milton |
| 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Debby |
| 2024 | Tropical Storm | Hurricane Debby |
| 2023 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Nicole |
| 2023 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Idalia |
| 2023 | Hurricane | Hurricane Nicole |
| 2023 | Hurricane | Hurricane Idalia |
| 2022 | Hurricane | Tropical Storm Ian |
| 2022 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ian |
Showing the 10 most recent of 39 total declarations since 1977.
Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries. A single disaster can produce more than one record per county. Data current through September 2026.
Risk by hazard type
| Hazard | Risk rating | Risk score | Recorded events | Deaths | Prop. damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wildfire | Relatively Moderate | 92.3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Inland Flooding | Relatively Moderate | 92.7 | 9 | 0 | $268.0M |
| Coastal Flooding | No Rating | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 65.9 | — | — | — |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 77.8 | 1 | 0 | — |
| Tornado | Relatively High | 97.6 | 4 | 0 | $5.3M |
| Hurricane | Relatively High | 94.7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Hail | Very Low | 21.3 | 45 | 0 | — |
| Strong Wind | Relatively High | 96.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Winter Weather | No Rating | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Ice Storm | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | 28.8 | — | — | — |
| Lightning | Relatively High | 95.8 | 4 | 2 | $550K |
| Drought | Very Low | 18.1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Landslide | Very Low | 19.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Avalanche | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Tsunami | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
| Volcanic Activity | Not Applicable | — | — | — | — |
Scores are 0–100 percentiles relative to all US counties — higher means more exposed, not that a disaster is likely this year. Event counts: NOAA Storm Events 2016–2026; earthquake counts from USGS ComCat (M3.0+, 1996–2026). See the methodology page for details.
Community vulnerability
Seminole County ranks in the 40th percentile (Low) for community vulnerability — a measure of how hard disaster impacts tend to hit residents. Higher vulnerability means more displacement, worse health outcomes, and slower recovery after a disaster.
| SVI theme | Percentile | Vulnerability level |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 40th | Low |
| Socioeconomic status | 41st | Low |
| Household characteristics | 31st | Low |
| Racial & ethnic minority status | 81st | High |
| Housing type & transportation | 28th | Low |
Source: CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index 2022. Percentiles compare counties nationally — higher means more vulnerable relative to other counties. See CDC SVI for full methodology.
Future risk outlook
| Wildfire metric | National percentile | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Burn probability | 94th | Very High |
| Risk to homes | 94th | Very High |
| Buildings in direct exposure zone | 33.5% | — |
NOAA tracked 63 weather events in this county over 2016–2025: 32 in 2016–20 vs 31 in 2021–25 (-3% — relatively stable).
Wildfire: USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities (RDS-2020-0016-2) — modeled values, not annual forecasts. See wildfirerisk.org. Inland flood and heat projections pending data availability; coastal sea-level projections are available for select coastal counties below — see the data page.
Nearby counties
Frequently asked questions
What natural hazards pose the greatest risk in Seminole County?
According to the FEMA National Risk Index, the highest-risk hazards in Seminole County, Florida are tornado, strong wind, and lightning. The county's overall natural hazard risk is rated Relatively Moderate — near the middle compared to other US counties.
Has Seminole County received federal disaster declarations?
Yes. Seminole County has received 39 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including declarations in 2025. The most common disaster type on record is hurricane (20 declarations).
Has Seminole County had any FEMA disaster declarations in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Yes. Recent federal disaster declarations for Seminole County include Hurricane Milton (2025), Hurricane Milton (2025), Tropical Storm Debby (2024), Hurricane Debby (2024). See the declarations table above for the full history since 1977.
How does Seminole County's natural hazard risk compare to nearby counties?
Among neighboring counties, Orange County, FL has the highest overall natural hazard risk (Relatively High) and Flagler County, FL has the lowest (Relatively Moderate). Seminole County is rated Relatively Moderate overall.
How is Seminole County's composite disaster risk index calculated?
Seminole County's composite disaster risk index — officially FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) — scores every US county on a 0–100 percentile scale across 18 natural hazard types, factoring in expected annual loss, social vulnerability, and community resilience. Seminole County's composite score of 91 means its overall natural hazard risk is higher than 91% of US counties.